Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald Odds & Prediction – Citi Open Semifinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- The seeds tumbled early at the Citi Open, leaving the experienced but unseeded Kei Nishikori as a contender
- Mackenzie McDonald drew Nick Kyrgios first round, but rode that victory all the way to the final four
- Nishikori is the favorite in this matchup of stylistic twins; can the younger McDonald pull off the upset?
Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald are opposites.
Nishikori, who is Japanese, developed as a tennis player in Florida. McDonald, whose mother is Chinese, grew up on the west coast of the U.S.
Somehow, they ended up in a similar place, tennis-wise. And tonight, they’ll share center court at the semifinals of the Citi Open, looking for a spot in the championship final.
Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kei Nishikori (JPN) | -2.5 (-130) | -200 | O 22.5 (-105) |
| Mackenzie McDonald (USA) | +2.5 (+105) | +165 | U 22.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Aug. 7 at DraftKings
Long Roads Back from Injury for Nishikori, McDonald
The players are both listed at 5-foot-10.
In today’s game, that is positively minuscule, And making up for that disadvantage is all about the legs.
Nishikori is a 31-year-old with a ton of mileage in his pistons, who broke into the big time as a teenager. McDonald is a young 26 in tennis terms.
He spent three years starring at UCLA before going pro. And then the American also lost 18 months just as he was on the rise.
McDonald tore the tendon right off the bone at the French Open in 2019. And for the first couple of months after surgery, he couldn’t even walk. For a player who makes his money with his wheels, that’s an especially tough blow.
The Bay Area's own Mackenzie McDonald with a major upset today to advance to the third round of the Australian Open. The UCLA grad sat out 15 months after tearing his hamstring tendon off the bone in the 2019 French Open. Talk about a comeback! @kron4news #AusOpen #BayArea https://t.co/DcxQKiGqfe
— Kylen Mills (@KylenMills) February 12, 2021
With his victory in the Citi Open quarterfinals Friday against fellow American Denis Kudla, McDonald is back in the top 100 for the first time since the injury.
The win over Kudla also earned him a special exemption into the main draw of the big Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto this week.
Nishikori on the Come-Up After Elbow Issue
Nishikori had surgery to have bone spurs removed in his right elbow at the end of 2019.
He sometimes uses a protected ranking (No. 10). And the rankings freeze during the pandemic helped him.
But the player who has spent significant chunks of his career in the top 10 is about as low since Wimbledon (he’s No. 67 this week) as he’s been in a decade.
It certainly doesn’t reflect the quality of his tennis right now.
Nishikori vs McDonald Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Dallas Challenger (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-4 | Nishikori |
McDonald Beats Kyrgios, Squeaks Past Paire
The last two rounds were routine for McDonald. But he opened his Citi Open campaign against the mercurial Nick Kyrgios in front of a large crowd in DC.
McDonald squeaked past another unpredictable customer, France’s Benoit Paire, in the second round.
Tough Draws Belie Improved Play for Nishikori
If Nishikori’s climb back up the rankings has been slow, you can blame the draw gods for some of it.
He faced Stefanos Tsitsipas early on in Miami. He took Rafael Nadal to three sets in Barcelona. And then he ran into Alexander Zverev three consecutive times.
But coming off the emotions of playing the Olympics in his home country, he has refocused well in DC.
Nishikori vs McDonald Head-to-Head
| 31 (Dec. 29, 1989) | Age | 26 (April 16, 1995) |
| Shimane, Japan | Birthplace | Piedmont, Calif. |
| 5-10 | Height | 5-10 |
| 12 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 0 |
| No. 4 (March 2, 2015) | Career High Ranking | No. 57 (April 29, 2019) |
| No. 69 | Current Ranking | No. 107 |
| $24,738,177 | Career Prize Money | $2.092.543 |
| 22-14 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 12-10 |
| 1 | Career ATP Head to Head | 0 |
Battle of the Returns
McDonald is the slightly better server of the two. He has a few more aces per game and a slightly better percentage of service games won.
But Nishikori wins a significantly higher percentage of points on his second serve. He defends it better and thus, is less vulnerable in the big moments.
Over the last 52 weeks, Nishikori has broken serve at a much better rate (per the ATP Tour stats, above).
Experience Will Prevail
The two met just once, at a rare Challenger appearance by Nishikori in Dallas in early 2018 after he’d been off six months with injury. On a faster indoor surface, he prevailed easily.
The 31-year-old is used to being in semifinals of 500-level tournaments. But it’s rarer territory for McDonald, who hadn’t won a match in his two previous visits to DC. Nishikori is playing the event for the eighth time.
And as Nishikori sees two teenagers in the other semifinal, he likely senses a great opportunity for a second Citi Open title.
Best Bet: Nishikori in two sets (-115).
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
