Best Bets to Make on 2021 NBA Draft

• The 2021 NBA Draft takes place this Thursday and speculation is rife as rumors fly around the league
• Detroit, Houston and Cleveland own the top three picks, but there’s potential for trades
• Read below for NBA Draft betting advice and the best available props

Like everything in the last few months of the NBA, the draft has come around very quickly. With Milwaukee’s Finals triumph fresh in our memories, attention has quickly flipped to mocks, scouting reports and 24-hour rumors.

The NBA Draft odds have shifted consistently over the last few weeks. Cade Cunningham may remain the consensus at number one, but there’s plenty of uncertainty and betting value to be found after that. We’re going to take a look at some of the best bets for the 2021 NBA Draft, starting with odds on players to be drafted in the top 10.

Odds on Players to Be Drafted In the Top 10

Odds as of Jul 28 at DraftKings

Sengun & Moody Are Good Value

It’s disingenuous to compare Alperen Sengun to Nikola Jokic, but it’s also easy to see how a front office could talk themselves into the Turkish prospect as a top ten pick. The success of Jokic and Luka Doncic should have broken through some of the concerns about European prospects. Sengun is generally mocked as a late-lottery selection, yet he’s clearly got huge upside.

Kevin O’Connor has Sengun going at nine to the Kings. While that’s higher than many others, it’s also a fit which makes sense with Sacramento looking to move on from Marvin Bagley. He could also work for the Grizzlies at 10 as a long-term partner for Jaren Jackson Jr in the frontcourt. The defense is a concern, but the playmaking, scoring touch and shooting potential could easily win a front office over.

There’s no doubt Sengun is a project player. As a project, though, he makes sense for teams like OKC and Orlando. Having traded up for Aleksej Pokusevski last year, don’t rule out the Thunder moving up to land Sengun, who is a far more accomplished prospect than fan-favorite Poku.

Moses Moody at +155 is a bet to really consider. Moody is solid-to-good outside shooter with a 7’1 wingspan. He’s in a group of wings that draft experts struggle to agree on, but some have suggested the Warriors at seven as a potential fit. The Grizzlies, who just traded into the 10 spot, would also make a lot of sense. In fact, Moody has two-way potential which fits on practically roster.

Anthony Slater reported of the Warriors’ interest in Moody, though others think Golden State would prefer James Bouknight at seven if he’s still on the board. Moody’s size, shooting and defense are going to appeal to plenty of executives around the league even if Golden State goes elsewhere.

He would be a great fit at the three alongside De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton in north California.

• Picks: Alperen Sengun (+160), Moses Moody (+155) to be selected in the top 10

Corey Kispert Draft Position Odds

Kispert Slides

Many draft experts had Corey Kispert going to the Pacers at 13. Indiana has been shopping that pick around, however, and he reportedly had a poor workout with the organization just a few days ago. Going for the over on Kispert’s draft position is as much about his player type as anything.

Sure, he can replace Doug McDermott. Sure, he’s the sort of NBA-ready player that Rick Carlisle will be happy with. Ultimately, though, Kispert is a shooter who may struggle to cope defensively in the playoffs. He’s limited as a playmaker. As much as the league is in love with knockdown three-point shooters right now, Kispert’s limitations could put off teams in the top 13.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8A5bcxn-T4

It seems very unlikely he goes before the Pacers. If they’re dissuaded by the poor workout or swing a trade, it looks like Kispert could fall into the late-teens.

Charlotte are looking for size at 11. The Spurs at 12 could take a liking to Kispert, but they traditionally like more versatile, athletic wings.

The Pacers are poised to make a big move. Even if they stick at 13, it isn’t guaranteed that they take Kispert. Davion Mitchell or Cameron Thomas could be a fit. With higher upside wings on the board, there’s definitely value in betting the over on Kispert’s 13.5 draft position.

• Pick: Corey Kispert selected 14th or later (-130)

Exact Top Four Draft Order Odds

Odds as of Jul 28 at FanDuel

Mobley Goes Two

There’s been a lot of noise about possible trades in the top four. Most of it is no more than rumor and smokescreens from front offices. We went through the same process last year with the Timberwolves, Warriors and Hornets.

Generally perceived as a four-player draft at the top, some analysts have edged towards this being a three-player core with Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley. The odds now favor Green going second to the Rockets because Houston doesn’t seem excited by drafting Mobley, but given how far away the Rockets are from contending, a trade shouldn’t be ruled out. There are plenty of people that consider Mobley the greatest talent in this draft, with some particularly ambitious comparisons to Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh.

"I had one scout tell me the other night that Mobley is Chris Bosh on offense and Anthony Davis on defense. That’s an NBA superstar. That’s crazy." 🤯

– @chadfordinsider on Evan Mobley
(Via @ChrisFedor ) pic.twitter.com/5HxCreXNhW

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) July 26, 2021

Houston could have a change of heart. They could, of course, still trade out of the two spot. Mobley could be a long-term centerpiece for the Thunder or Raptors if they threw in future picks to trade up. If Cleveland sticks with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland in the backcourt, Mobley would make an awesome frontcourt partner for Jarrett Allen.

It’s equally possible that Houston has been playing mind games with leaks about taking Green.

Most reporting might indicate otherwise, but with Green and Mobley viewed as very similar levels of prospect, it’s easy to see the USC big man going second overall.

As long as +440, it’s worth a wager on the Cunningham, Mobley, Green, Suggs order.

• Pick: Cunningham, Mobley, Green, Suggs (+440)