Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Odds & Prediction – WTA Madrid Open Quarterfinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- Ashleigh Barty and Petra Kvitova will meet for the 10th time in the Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals
- They’ll play Wednesday – for the first time on clay since Barty had just turned 16, at the 2012 French Open
- Barty is now the solid favorite to win the tournament. Can Kvitova find a way? We break it down below.
Time was that an Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova match was an almost weekly occurrence.
Then the pandemic hit, and the two haven’t played each other since early 2020.
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) | -3.5 (-107) | -225 | O 21.5 (-122) |
| [9] Petra Kvitova (CZE) | +3.5 (-115) | +180 | U 21.5 (-103) |
Odds as of May 3
But with Barty now installed as the favorite to win the Mutua Madrid Open at +210 (Kvitova is at +600), much has changed.
Seven of Nine Career Meetings Within 14 Months
During a period that stretched from the Sydney tournament in January 2019 through Doha in February 2020, Barty and Kvitova met seven times.
All of them were on hard courts.
Kvitova was the higher-ranked player when she won the first four, two of them in Barty’s native Australia. The turn came in Miami in 2019 when underdog Barty beat her for the first time and won the tournament.
Then Barty, soon installed as No. 1 after winning the 2019 French Open, won three more after that.
Their last meeting was in Doha in 2020.
Kvitova pulled that out. And then Barty didn’t play again in 2020.
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Head-to-Head
| 25 (April 24, 1996) | Age | 31 (March 8, 1990) |
| Ipswich, Australia | Birthplace | Bilovec, Czech Republic |
| 5-5 | Height | 6-0 |
| 11 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 28 |
| No. 1 (June 24, 2019) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (Oct. 31, 2011) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 12 |
| $18,424,213 | Career Prize Money | $32,824,782 |
| 23-3 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 14-6 |
| 4 | Career Head-to-Head | 5 |
One Meeting on Clay, Back in 2012
The only other time the two met on clay – until Wednesday– was in the first round of the 2012 French Open.
https://youtu.be/ICxSk2sC8fU
Barty, just turned 16, was there with Tennis Australia’s wild card. Her prep was a … junior tournament. Other than a few wild cards at home, the young Aussie’s professional experience had been lower-level $25,000 ITF events.
She got three games; Kvitova went on to the semifinals.
Things have changed.
Barty won the 2019 French Open, and she also won Stuttgart 10 days ago, her first clay-court tournament since that major victory. She’s on a 14-match winning streak on clay.
Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Doha (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 | Kvitova |
| 2020 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (6), 6-2 | Barty |
| 2019 | WTA Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-2 | Barty |
| 2019 | Beijing (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 | Barty |
| 2019 | Miami (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (6), 3-6, 6-2 | Barty |
| 2019 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-4 | Kvitova |
| 2019 | Sydney (F) | Outdoor Hard | 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (3) | Kvitova |
| 2017 | Birmingham (F) | Grass | 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 | Kvitova |
| 2012 | French Open (R128) | Clay | 6-1, 6-2 | Kvitova |
Both Barty and Kvitova With One Tough Match
Kvitova is coming off a grueling three-set win in the third round over Veronika Kudermetova. The Russian is seven years younger and a recent winner on clay in Istanbul.
But before that, it was fairly smooth sailing.
Barty had a surprisingly difficult time with qualifier Tamara Zidansek in the second round, losing the middle set 1-6 before advancing to the much-anticipated first meeting with Iga Swiatek, who won the 2020 French Open in her absence.
CLUTCH AGAIN 👏👏👏
14 straight wins for @ashbarty on the red clay to book a QF spot in Madrid.
Rallied from 3-0 down in the 1st set, winning 80% points behind her 1st serve, never facing a break point after drawing level in the openor.
Next: 9th seed Petra Kvitova. 🍿🎾 pic.twitter.com/CQqa7iqqIf
— The First Serve (@TheFirstServeAU) May 3, 2021
Swiatek is six years younger than Barty.
Wednesday’s matchup is the reverse; the Aussie is six years younger than Kvitova.
The winner will play the winner of No. 8 seed Belinda Bencic and Spanish wild card Paula Badosa in the semifinals.
Fast Madrid Clay a Help for Kvitova
Kvitova has plenty of experience playing craftswoman with variety on clay. And she knows Barty’s game well. So there isn’t much that’s going to throw her off-balance.
Madrid is the quickest of all the clay-court events because of the altitude. And Kvitova is a three-time champion; she knows how to win there.
The match against Swiatek was likely draining mentally. Barty will need not to let down against the Czech, and serve as well as she did against Swiatek.
Kvitova will do well to win the first set (+155) because her two comeback wins over Barty came many moons ago.
Expect this one to go three sets (+143), and to go over 21.5 games (-122). It feels like a more even matchup than the odds would indicate.
Best Bet: Barty in three sets (+300)
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
