Joe Ingles Odds to Win Sixth Man of the Year Sit at +600 – Can He Catch Heavily Favored Jazz Teammate Jordan Clarkson?

• Joe Ingles of the Utah Jazz has been a key off-the-bench component for the NBA-leading Utah Jazz, leads NBA in 3-point percentage
• Teammate Jordan Clarkson carries the same description and is a heavy favorite for Sixth Man of the Year, leads NBA in 3-point percentage
• Ingles has superior numbers in several categories other than points per game; Does that make him worth a wager at current odds of +600?

Player A shoots 42.5 percent from the field, averages 2.2 assists and 17.5 points off the bench and leads the NBA in free throw percentage.

Player B shoots 52.2 percent from the field, averages 4.4 assists and 12.4 points off the bench and leads the NBA in 3-point percentage.

Which is the better Sixth Man of the Year candidate?

Player A is Jordan Clarkson of the Utah Jazz. Player B is Joe Ingles of the Utah Jazz. And it is not that simple . First, let’s have a look at their Sixth Man of the Year odds.

2021 Sixth Man of the Year Odds

Odds as of April 23rd

Measuring the Counting Stats

Clarkson has been the frontrunner for this award all season long because of the point production he provides to the team with the NBA’s best record. He is Utah’s second-leading scorer behind Donovan Mitchell, whereas Ingles ranks sixth on the team (Mike Conley is 3rd, 16.2 PPG; Bojan Bogdanovic & Rudy Gobert average 15.5).

Clarkson, listed as a point guard, is averaging 4.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He takes 15.1 shots per game and makes them at a percentage of 42.4. On three-pointers, he shoots 35 percent. He leads the NBA in free throw percentage at .949.

Ingles, listed as a shooting guard, is averaging 3.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists. He takes 8.0 shots and converts them at a rate of 52.5 percent. On 3-pointers, he is shooting 49.4 percent – the best in the NBA. He makes 85.7 percent of his free throws.

6 of em pic.twitter.com/C0WN1kU653

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) April 22, 2021

Clarkson averages 26 minutes per game; Ingles averages 27.2.

So let’s say Clarkson is the better scorer but Ingles is the far better shooter on any shot that counts for more than 1 point. Clarkson is the better rebounder by a little, and Ingles has more than twice as many assists. And we should make a special note that leading the entire NBA in 3-point accuracy is quite a feat. Ingles, at 49.4 percent, is far ahead of No. 2 Joe Harris of the Brooklyn Nets at 48.4 percent.

Advanced Stats Give the Edge to Ingles

Anybody who regularly plays fantasy basketball should be familiar with assist-to-turnover ratio because it is often used in 9-cat and 10-cat leagues. It is a good statistic because it measures the number of possessions that ended with a bucket (hence the assist) and how many possessions ended up with the other team getting the ball, a.k.a. an empty possession.

Clarkson has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.3. Ingles is a 2.9. Clarkson shoots 52.4 percent on 2s; Ingles shoots 60.8 percent.

Ingles leads the NBA in shooting efficiency (an analytic measurement combining 3s, 2s and free throws) and effective shooting percentage (a metric that quantifies the importance of 3s vs .2s). Ingles is 19th in the league in win shares (an analytic estimate of the number of victories attributed to one specific player.) Ingles ranks 13th in win shares per 48 minutes (.206), right behind James Harden of Brooklyn.

Ingles ranks 24th in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Clarkson is 77th.

Odds Movement and Voting Process

That is a very difficult wager, because Clarkson has been considered a virtual lock for this award all season long, and his odds have shortened as much as -800. They were -350 Thursday and moved to -670 overnight at DraftKings.

You must remember that if a voter picks Ingles over Clarkson, he or she may get blowback for not choosing the league leader in free throw percentage (assuming Clarkson maintains that spot). The NBA publishes the actual ballots after the award is announced, so everyone can see exactly how each of the 125 ballots looked. (Voters pick first, second and third for the Sixth Man Award).

To make a case for Ingles, the voter will have to have an appreciation of certain analytics. It is hard to predict whether a majority of voters  will research it that far.

But one thing is for sure: Most, if not all, of the 125 official voters will have Harrell of the Lakers on their ballot. Harrell held down the center position during Anthony Davis’ prolonged absence, which ended Thursday night. If you can find a bookmaker willing to take “Montrezl Harrell for 3rd place in Sixth Man of the Year” award voting, you can write a book called “How I Paid For My Yacht.”

Is Ingles Worth a Wager at This Current Price?

At +600, Ingles is a risky bet. He might be the most under-appreciated player in the NBA. A few years back, he was left out of the 3-point All-Star shootout despite leading the league in that category.

He will turn a bunch of heads during the playoffs and a wider audience gains appreciation for the way the Jazz play. But for now, he is still only the sixth-leading scorer on his team, and in the end that probably works against him.