2021 PGA Tour RBC Heritage Sleepers and Longshot Picks
By Chris Amberley in Golf
Updated: April 19, 2021 at 6:37 pm EDTPublished:
- The RBC Heritage tees off Thursday (April 15th) at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina
- Corey Conners has finished 14th or better in four straight starts, including three top-8 results
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links this week for the RBC Heritage, where golfers will be looking to claim a far less prestigious jacket than the one handed out on Sunday at the Masters. That of course is the Tartan Jacket, and while Bryson DeChambeau has already withdrawn from the tournament, plenty of big names are still teeing it up on Thursday.
Perhaps no player enters with better form than Corey Conners. The Canadian has reeled off top-14 finishes in four consecutive starts (including three top-8’s) and appears to have a game that is perfectly suited to compete at any venue on Tour.
2021 RBC Heritage Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win at FanDuel | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Conners | +3400 | +275 | +138 |
| Charley Hoffman | +4300 | +400 | +188 |
| Chris Kirk | +7500 | +500 | +225 |
| Lucas Glover | +9000 | +700 | +300 |
Odds as of April 13th.
Conners has been a model of consistency since October. He’s missed just a single cut in 14 events, and finished top-10 at the Masters twice.
Conners Is a Statistical Darling
Conners’ opening odds vary great depending on which online sportsbook you use, so make sure to shop around. He’s as short as +2300 at some books, yet as long as +3400 at others. He’s arguably been the class of this field over the past 24 rounds, ranking near the top in nearly every major strokes gained category.
Ace! Corey Conners plays No. 6 to perfection. #themasters pic.twitter.com/dBTVUgSmQS
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2021
He ranks first in ball striking, second in tee-to-green, third on approach and off the tee, while no one has hit more greens in regulation. Even his putting, which has held him back in the past, has started to come around. He’s gained with the flatstick in three straight measured events, the first time he’s ever done that in his PGA Tour career.
Conners Strokes Gained Data Ranks – Last 24 Rounds
| T2G | BS | OTT | APP | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
There is an argument to be made that perhaps he’ll have trouble getting up for this event after close calls at more prominent tournaments like the Masters, Players and API, but his form is too good to ignore. He’s been T-10 or better in six of his past 12 starts, and it’s only a matter of time before he earns his second career victory.
Pick: Corey Conners to Win (+3400)
Hoffman Is Hot
Next up, is Charley Hoffman who’s strokes gained data rivals that of Conners lately. Hoffman ranks second in strokes gained approach over the past 24 rounds, third in ball striking and fourth in tee-to-green. He’s fresh off a runner-up finish at Valero, where he gained 9.8 strokes with his ball striking, and 13.2 strokes tee-to-green.
Charley Hoffman just took shot-shaping to a whole new level. 😱pic.twitter.com/uTw72a2HSr
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) May 26, 2019
Hoffman hasn’t won on Tour since 2016, but his recent form suggests he’s close. He’s finished 17th or better five times in his past eight starts (including three top-10’s) and he put on a ball striking clinic at the Players, which like Harbour Town is another Pete Dye course.
He’s got decent history at this event, with a pair of top-23 finishes over the past five years, but he’s never entered in such good form. Like Conners, Hoffman’s price varies greatly between different books so make sure to shop around. I’ve seen him as short as +4000 and as along as +6000 as of Monday night.
Pick: Charley Hoffman to Win (+4300)
Kirk In Command
Our next target is Chris Kirk, who’s fresh off a sixth place finish at Valero, his second top-10 in four starts.
Rattled in from distance. ⛳️
@Chris_Kirk_ gets to -5 on the day and just two back. 🔥#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/xvPPFtPZH3
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 12, 2021
The 35-year-old needed a second place finish at the Sony back in January just to keep his PGA Tour status, but has since been on a tear. He’s placed 16th or better in four of his past seven events, and has been gaining strokes in every facet of his game. Last time out in Texas, he gained 4 strokes on approach, and has now gained at least 1.6 strokes ball striking in five straight events.
Pick: Chris Kirk Top-10 Finish (+500)
No Glove No Love
Last but not least, is Lucas Glover. The former U.S. Open winner has racked up back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Honda and Valero, gaining 12 strokes tee-to-green last time out in Texas.
Walk-off eagle. 🦅
A perfect pitch from @Lucas_Glover_.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/LJX7cQAdC2
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 29, 2021
Glover led the Valero field in greens in regulation, firing a blistering final round 66 on Sunday, to vault himself into fourth place. He’s got plenty of history at Harbour Town, finishing 21st in his most recent appearance in 2020.
Pick: Lucas Glover Top-20 Finish (+300)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
