The Players Championship 2021 First Round Leader Odds

• The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL tees off Thursday, March 11th
• Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson are co-favorites to be the first round leader
• See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below 

Following Bryson DeChambeau’s stirring victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the PGA Tour heads two hours up the road to Ponte Vedra Beach, FL for the Players Championship. This tournament is the unofficial ‘fifth major’ on the calendar as the tour’s crown jewel event, featuring 48 of the top 50 players in the world.

Despite having a spotty career record at the TPC Sawgrass with just one top-10 in eleven attempts, Dustin Johnson is the betting favorite to win the tournament outright.

He’s the co-favorite to wind up as the first round leader with DeChambeau, who bludgeoned drives en route to his eight career title last week.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one at TPC Sawgrass.

2021 Players Championship First Round Leader Odds

All odds taken March 9th at FanDuel

The forecast looks promising as it’ll be mostly sunny all day, as temperatures are in the low 60’s early in the morning with barely any wind (4-7 miles per hour). By noon, it’ll warm up to 68 degrees and the wind gusts reach as high as 15 miles per hour, so the morning wave of players has a slight advantage.

An added benefit for those playing in the morning also is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.

Jason Day Loves Sawgrass

Jason Day has shown a propensity to be very comfortable around TPC Sawgrass, having won the 2016 edition, then finished T-5 in 2018 and T-8 in 2019. He’s also been solid in his last three tournaments following three missed cuts in a four event stretch, with T-7, T-18, T-31 results. That’s led us to think he’s a great top-10 candidate this week.

In the last 24 rounds at this venue, he’s put on a clinic, ranking very high in a lot of strokes gained categories, much like his fellow countryman and 2004 winner, Adam Scott.

Jason Day & Adam Scott Strokes Gained Last 24 Rounds at TPC Sawgrass

Jason Day need binoculars to find his ball during round two at Bay Hill. pic.twitter.com/qnPHefOoUl

— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) March 6, 2021

In twelve opening rounds this season only once has Day shot worse than 72. With his strong track record around this mercurial course, Day could find a way to jump out in front on day one like he did in 2016 en route to victory.

• Pick: Jason Day (+5500)

Scott the Strokes Gained King at Players Championship

Adam Scott, meanwhile, also boasts strong strokes gained numbers around the Players Championship like Day.

He’s also ranked a respectable 19th in first round scoring on the campaign, with nothing worse than a 72 in his last eleven Thursdays, including seven rounds in the 60’s.

2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

*2nd ranked Akshay Bhatia is not in the field

The champion in 2004 has been dynamite of late at this event, posting six top-20’s in his last eight appearances with four straight top-12’s. In his last 36 rounds at this venue, Scott is first in total strokes gained and second in SG: tee-to-green.

• Pick: Adam Scott (+6000)

Keegan Bradley a Great Sleeper Candidate

An exceptional dark horse candidate to take the early lead is 2011 PGA Champion Keegan Bradley, who was just two strokes out of the lead heading into the final round of last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

This season he’s a respectable 42nd in first round scoring, with five of his last seven rounds in the 60’s. He’s been strong in his ball striking also, ranking ninth in both SG: tee-to-green and approaching the green.

23 putts for @Keegan_Bradley on Saturday. 👏

59th career bogey-free round. 👏 pic.twitter.com/kqZu4THQgu

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 7, 2021

He’s had two solid showings in the last two Players Championships, tying for 16th in 2019 and placing T-7th in 2018. For those eight rounds, he ranks first in strokes gained approaching the green, third in ball striking, fifth tee-to-green and total strokes gained.

Most importantly, for a player who struggles on the greens, he’s been a respectable 39th on the dance floor in the last two tournaments around this track, making him an intriguing option.

• Pick: Keegan Bradley (+8000)