Biden’s Chances to Win 2020 Election Soar to 83.9%; Trump Down to Just 16.1%
By Robert Duff in Politics News
Published:
- As counting of mail-in ballots is continuing on Wednesday, odds are giving Democrat challenger Joe Biden an 83.9 chance of scoring a win in the 2020 US Presidential election
- Republican incumbent Donald Trump is offered a meager 16.1% chance of retaining the White House
- Biden was declared the winner in Michigan and Wisconsin. He requires just six more Electoral College votes for a mandate
What a difference a day is making in determining who will win the 2020 US Presidential election.
Around 2 am ET on Wednesday, President Donald Trump was declaring himself a winner. Trump was leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the time. He was the -241 favorite in the Election odds at that point.
As it turned out, the checks and balances to prevent Trump from earning a second term in the Oval Office were mail-in ballots.
All three of the aforementioned states didn’t begin counting mail-in ballots until early Wednesday. Those mail-in ballots skewed heavily to the Democrats and made Biden a winner in both Wisconsin and Michigan.
By breakfast time Wednesday, Biden was the -420 chalk. Biden is currently an overwhelming -780 favorite to win the Presidency. That equates to an 83.9% probability of a Biden win.
Odds To Win 2020 US Presidential Election
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -780 |
| Donald Trump | +490 |
Odds taken Nov. 4th
Biden currently sits with 264 Electoral College votes. He requires only six more to win the election and be declared America’s President-Elect.
Building A Blue Wall
In winning Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden was taking back two traditionally-Democratic states that turned Republican red in 2016.
As counting of mail-in ballots was happening in both states, they were leaning heavily in Biden’s favor. That enabled him to overtake Trump in both states and be declared the winner.
The Trump campaign says it will demand a recount in Wisconsin. They are also launching court challenges in other close states.
Just an amazing bit of TV here.
While Rudy Giuliani is rambling on about election fraud conspiracies during the Trump campaign's presser, Neil Cavuto cuts in to announce that Fox News has called Michigan for Joe Biden, placing Biden on the cusp of 270. pic.twitter.com/FHv79du2ED
— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) November 4, 2020
Pennsylvania had counted approximately 50% of its mail-in ballots. The numbers currently show Trump ahead 51.8-47.0.
Basing projections on the trajectory of the mail-in support, expectations suggest Biden winning the Keystone State.
Nevada Could Be The Decider
Regardless of the outcome in Pennsylvania, Biden just needs to maintain his lead in Nevada. Should he do so, he’ll be the next President.
With 85% of ballots counted, Biden leads Trump 49.3-48.7. Of the counting left to be down, a majority come from Democratic-leaning areas.
The contested 2000 election was over a margin of 500-odd votes.
Trump is down roughly
– 20,000 in Wisconsin
– 70,000 in Michigan
– 90,000 in Arizona
– 8,000 in NevadaThis is not 2000.
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) November 4, 2020
Nevada expects to have a tabulation of the remaining ballots by Thursday. The state’s six Electoral College votes would given Biden the the necessary 270 for a mandate.
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
