Odds on Matt Ryan and Julio Jones Being Traded Before Deadline

• Bookmakers are offering long odds on the Falcons moving either QB Matt Ryan or WR Julio Jones prior to the Nov. 3rd trade deadline
• The odds that Ryan stays in Atlanta have been set at -1200
• In the case of Jones, the betting line that he remains a Falcon is -1000

Quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones have been Atlanta Falcons for a very long time. The Falcons haven’t been very good for a very long time.

That would explain why there’s been plenty of scuttlebutt climbing the NFL grapevine about the Falcons shipping out Ryan, Jones, or even both prior to the Nov. 3rd trade deadline.

Prop bets are out relating to the chances of Jones or Ryan being traded by the Falcons, and the betting lines  are setting the odds strongly against either possibility becoming a reality.

The betting line on Jones favors him not being traded at -1000 odds. In Ryan’s case, the odds are even longer that he’ll be remaining in Atlanta. The Falcons QB is listed at -1200 odds to stay put.

Odds Julio Jones or Matt Ryan Is Traded Before Nov. 3rd Deadline

Odds taken Oct. 21st.

Atlanta is off to a 1-5 start this season. The Falcons went 7-9 in both 2018 and 2019.

It’s a Falcons Mess

Following an 0-5 start in Atlanta, the departures began with GM Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn.

There’s an old saying about how it’s easier to get rid of one coach than 53 players. In a salary-cap world, this is an even more accurate truth.

NFL insiders are “openly wondering” if Julio and Matt Ryan will get shopped before the trade deadline, per @JFowlerESPN, @DanGrazianoESPN pic.twitter.com/BExm0NFvIm

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 20, 2020

Ryan and Jones are both under contract through the 2023 season, so any attempt at moving them will see some severe salary-cap dead weight coming to bear upon the Falcons.

Jones signed a three-year deal prior to this season that will pay him $66 million. Meanwhile, Ryan is in the midst of a five-year pact worth $150 million. According to SportRac, teams would be looking at a cap hit of $40.9 million for Ryan in 2021.

11/3 #NFL Trade Candidate
– Julio Jones

New Team Acquires:
2020: $5.9M
2021: $15.3M (GTD)
2022: $11.5M
2023: $11.5M

Dead Cap to the #Falcons
2020: $14.4M
2021: $23.25M

ATL Saves:
2020: $5.9M
2021: $200k
2022: $19.2M
2023: $19.2Mhttps://t.co/FpLHvrSCtc pic.twitter.com/WcoUSRcHOw

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 20, 2020

The Falcons would also be on the hook for a nasty chunk of dead-cap space. Reportedly, Ryan’s departure would cost them in the neighborhood of $42 million. The cap hit for moving Jones would be around $23 million.

Offseason Move More Likely

Big-ticket NFL trades generally unfold in the offseason. The 2021 cap ceiling will be certain by then.

That being said, it’s not like there aren’t plenty of NFL teams that couldn’t use a seven-time All-Pro wideout. Jones would be a splendid fit with the Raiders. The Colts, Patriots, Eagles and Packers all could use help at receiver.

.@Espngreeny thinks the Colts need to trade for Matt Ryan immediately.

"If Matt Ryan was on the Indianapolis Colts by the end of this season, they'd look like a Super Bowl team. They're missing one piece, and that one piece is the quarterback of the Falcons right now." pic.twitter.com/tsqjr2tIZG

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) October 13, 2020

Meanwhile, imagine Ryan suddenly showing up in Dallas to replace the injured Dak Prescott?

What the Falcons might hope to realize from these deals is another matter. When Green Bay dealt Brett Favre to the Jets in 2008, all the Packers got out of it was a third-round draft pick. The Texans moved Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-rounder to the Cardinals earlier this year and got running back David Johnson and second- and fourth-round picks in return.

Those reports about the Falcons “actively shopping” Matt Ryan and Julio Jones?

100% BS.

Falcons aren’t actively shopping any of their players. They’re not going to trade Ryan or Julio until 6/1/2021 at the earliest and that’s only if the new GM thinks they should due to cap.

— 𝑺𝒄𝒐𝒕𝒕 𝑪𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒔𝒊𝒌 🐦‍⬛🏈🇬🇪🇺🇦🇱🇻 (@CarasikS) October 21, 2020

Both those deals were offseason acquisitions. If Ryan or Jones are moved, it won’t be until then.

No is the play here in both instances, which means unless you’re sitting on a massive wad of cash you don’t mind risking, there really isn’t a play at all.