Who’s Going to Win Texas? Yes, That’s Actually a Question This Year

Published: October 16, 2020 at 9:34 pm EDT

Donald Trump looking out at a crowd — Donald Trump is a -300 favorite to carry Texas, even though polls show him with just a 1.4-point edge over Joe Biden in the state. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wikimedia).

Donald Trump is the -300 odds-on favorite to carry Texas in the 2020 Presidential election
However, the Republican incumbent is just 1.4 points ahead of Democrat Joe Biden in polling in the state
Texas has gone Republican in every Presidential election since 1980

Deep in the heart of Texas, should Republicans be worried about Donald Trump’s hold over the state?

That all depends on which data is considered to be the most trustworthy and reliable.

The polls are suggesting the race in the Lone Star State between incumbent Trump and Democrat Joe Biden will be a fight to the finish. On average, Trump currently leads Biden by 1.4 points.

However, the betting odds tell a different tale. Trump is listed as the heavy -300 favorite to maintain Texas as a red state in the 2020 election odds.

Odds to Win Texas in 2020 Election

Candidate	Odds
Joe Biden (Democrat)	+225
Donald Trump (Republican)	-300

Odds as of Oct. 16 at Bet365.

Biden is the +225 underdog in this betting market.

Red Rose Of Texas

If you’re not over the age of 40, you can’t recall the state of Texas opting for a Democrat to occupy the White House.

It was in 1976 when Texas chose Democrat Jimmy Carter over Republican Gerald Ford. Carter carried 51.4% of the vote.

TSU Votes: This morning, Texas Southern University accepted the early voting challenge from Mayor @SylvesterTurner! Here’s a clip of #TXSU students, faculty, staff, and community members headed to the polls. #TXSU pic.twitter.com/kTFzqJGj2Y

— Texas Southern University (@TexasSouthern) October 13, 2020

That was also the fourth time in five elections that Texas ended up a blue state. John F. Kennedy (1960), Lyndon Johnson (1968) and Hubert Humphrey (1968) also carried Texas. Only Humphrey did so in a losing effort in the general election.

Since 1980, Texas has gone blood red in 10 consecutive Presidential elections. And most elections, it hasn’t even been close.

Ronald Reagan (1980 and 1984), George HW Bush (1988), George W Bush (2000 and 2004), John McCain (2008) and Mitt Romney (2012) were all the choice of more than 55% of Texans who cast a ballot on election day.

Harris County, the most populous county in Texas, just set a new record for voter turnout on a single day of early voting — 109,000 ballots cast, with 2 hours left until polls close for the day, per @HarrisVotes.

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee (@myhlee) October 13, 2020

Trump didn’t do as well in 2016 but he still won with 52.10% (4,685,047) of ballots cast, beating Democrat Hillary Clinton by almost nine points. She ended up with 43.12% (3,877,868).

Trump was the first Republican to fail to carry Texas by a double-digit margin since Bob Dole in 1996.

Is GOP Seeking To Suppress Voting?

Are the Republicans worrying about their hold on the Lone Star State? Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, issued an executive order limiting drop-off boxes for mail-in ballots to one per county.

Civil and voters’ rights groups took Abbott to court and the order was overturned by a US District Court judge. However, a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reinstated the order.

Raise your hand if you appreciate the judge who just put an end to the Texas governor's voter suppression scheme to limit drop off ballot boxes to 1 per county. ✋

— Chip Franklin.com (@chipfranklin) October 15, 2020

All three of those judges were Trump appointees. This action led Democrats to accuse the GOP of seeking to suppress the vote in Texas.

A Texas State Court Judge since ruled against Abbott’s order. Abbott indicated he would again appeal this decision.

Polls Lean Toward Trump

The 2020 Presidential race in Texas is shaping up to be the closest since 1968. In that election Humphrey (41.14) edged Republican Richard Nixon (39.87) by 1.27 points.

The closeness of the race is emphasized in two separate polls taken Oct. 15 by Survey Monkey. One showed Trump with a four-point lead (51-47). The other put Biden a point ahead of Trump (49-48).

Of 10 polls taken in Texas since Oct. 10, Trump was ahead of Biden in six. However, six of those 10 polls showed the margin to be 3% or less.

According to @FiveThirtyEight and @TheEconomist, @JoeBiden now has a better chance of winning Texas than @realDonaldTrump does of winning Florida.

— Ephraim Luft (@eluft) October 8, 2020

The website 270towin is calling Texas as leaning Republican. RealClearPolitics classifies Texas as a toss up.

With 38 Electoral College votes up for grabs, it doesn’t matter what the margin is at the ballot box. It registers as 38-0 on the scoreboard.

If Trump loses Texas, he won’t need to sweat about any of the battleground states. The battle will have already been lost.

Pick: Donald Trump (-300).

Robert Duff

Sports Writer

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

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