2020 US Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 120th US Open tees off on Thursday (Sept. 17) at Winged Foot Golf Club
• 2013 champ Justin Rose finished T3 last year and 9th at the recent PGA Championship
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

It’s U.S. Open week and if early reports from Winged Foot are any indication, this could be one of the toughest tests in recent memory.

are you even covering the U.S. Open if you don’t post about the rough?

DJ appears to have lost his ball just right of the fairway on No. 1. going to be a busy week for spotters.

(🎥: @ coach_rusty on IG) pic.twitter.com/a16n00qlN0

— Eric Patterson (@EPatGolf) September 14, 2020

The fairways are narrow, the rough is thick and the greens are incredibly undulated. It will take an elite ball striker, with a well rounded game to succeed here and it just so happens there’s a few of those on the oddsboard that still offer plenty of value.

2020 U.S. Open Odds

Odds taken Sept. 14th

Rose is Ready to Make a Run

Justin Rose is at the top of the list for me. The 2013 champ opened at +3300 in the US Open odds, but that number now sits at +5000. Given his pedigree, that price is a steal and it doesn’t hurt that he’s been trending up recently.

Justin Rose hanging around the top of the leaderboard. Currently T-6.#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/bt5MPXqX35

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) August 8, 2020

Rose finished 9th at the PGA Championship, gaining 4.1 strokes on approach, and another 7.8 with his short game. In addition to his win, he owns four other top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open, including a third place result last year.

He ranks 21st in the field in ball striking since the restart and 32nd in fairways gained. That second stat will be especially significant this week, as errand tee shots will leave golfers scrambling to save par.

Another factor working in his favor, is his Par-4 scoring on holes that range from 450-500 yards. Winged Foot features eight Par-4’s that fall within that distance, and Rose ranks 13th in the field in that category.

Pick: Justin Rose to win (+5000)

Fitzpatrick Excels on Tough Tracks

Another Englishman who offers value is Matthew Fitzpatrick. The 26-year-old isn’t suited for birdie fests, but instead plays his best golf on the game’s most challenging tracks. Take a look at his top finishes from 2020:

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top Finishes in 2020

He finished sixth at an extremely difficult BMW Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, third in brutal conditions at the Memorial, and ninth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the always challenging Bay Hill Club.

There were two total scores in the 60s in the final rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide.

Matthew Fitzpatrick recorded both of them:

69 (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
68 (Memorial Tournament)

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) July 20, 2020

He finished 12th at last year’s U.S. Open, and is one of the most accurate players in the field. He ranks ninth in fairways gained over past the 50 rounds and 27th in Par-4 scoring on holes between 450-500 yards. He’s also an excellent long iron player, ranking 21st in proximity from 200 yards and beyond which is important since a great deal of approaches will come from that distance.

Pick: Matthew Fitzpatrick top-10 finish (+500)

Don’t Sleep on Reavie

Speaking of accurate players, few can match the precision of Chez Reavie. The two-time winner on Tour ranks sixth in fairways gained over the last 50 rounds, and also excels in the other key categories were looking hard at this week.

https://twitter.com/PGAGolfChat/status/1305404046975565824

Reavie ranks 10th in Par-4 scoring from 450-500 yards, and sixth in proximity from 200+ yards. He finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open (along with Rose) and is fresh off a great finish at the Safeway Open. Reavie shot consecutive weekend rounds of 66 to vault into a tie for third, racking up 23 birdies and just five bogeys along the way.

He’s finished 14th or better in three of his past five Major Championship appearances, and appears ripe to pick up another top-20.

Pick: Chez Reavie top-20 finish (+400)