UFC Vegas 11 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview – Covington vs Woodley
By Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts News
Updated: September 21, 2020 at 7:29 am EDTPublished:
- Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley will finally share the Octagon after years rumors
- Fan-favorite Donald Cerrone battles Niko Price in a fantastic co-main event
- See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 10 main card, below
The Ultimate Fighting Championship remains in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Sep. 19) for UFC Vegas 11.
In the main event, top-five welterweights Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley finally share the Octagon after first being rumored to fight in September 2018.
The co-main event sees Donald Cerrone looking to snap his losing streak against the always exciting Niko Price.
The UFC Vegas 11 main card airs live on ESPN at 8:00 pm ET. The table below shows odds for the main card at FanDuel and DraftKings, followed by best bets for the event.
UFC Vegas 11 Main Card Odds
| Fighter | Odds at FanDuel | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Colby Covington | -360 | -360 |
| Tyron Woodley | +290 | +275 |
| Fighter | Odds | Odds |
| Donald Cerrone | +138 | +130 |
| Niko Price | -170 | -159 |
| Fighter | Odds | Odds |
| Khamzat Chimaev | -430 | -500 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | +320 | +360 |
| Fighter | Odds | Odds |
| Johnny Walker | -122 | -137 |
| Ryan Spann | +100 | +110 |
| Fighter | Odds | Odds |
| Mackenzie Dern | -188 | -190 |
| Randa Markos | +152 | +150 |
All odds taken Sept. 14.
Who Wins the Grudge Match?
Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley was going to headline a pay-per-view in 2018 and would’ve been one of the biggest fights the promotion could have made at the time. Contract negotiations derailed that prospective bout, but the two will finally share the Octagon on Saturday night in the main event of UFC Vegas 11.
Covington & Woodley Recent Fights
| Kamaru Usman, loss by TKO | Fight 1 | Gilbert Burns, loss by decision |
| Robbie Lawler, win by decision | Fight 2 | Kamaru Usman, loss by decision |
| Rafael dos Anjos, win by decision | Fight 3 | Darren Till, win by submission |
| Demian Maia, win by decision | Fight 4 | Demian Maia, win by decision |
In their primes, this would have been a phenomenal fight between two of the best welterweights in the world who genuinely hate each other.
Although it is good we are finally getting this fight, it would’ve been much more competitive back in 2018. In his last two fights, Woodley has not looked like himself and failed to pull the trigger. Covington also has the worst style for him given he is a pressure fighter who uses grappling to his advantage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaKqzFVqVl0&ab_channel=UFC-UltimateFightingChampionship
Expect Covington to push the pace from the beginning and mix striking and takedowns to wear down Woodley just as Kamaru Usman did.
Covington should win this fight but -360 is hard to lay, so perhaps look for a Covington-by-decision prop.
Pick: Colby Covington (-360)
Covington vs Woodley Stats
| 32 | Age | 38 |
| 5’11” | Height | 5’9″ |
| 72″ | Reach | 74″ |
| 4 | UFC finishes | 6 |
Can Cerrone Snap His Losing Skid?
Donald Cerrone and Niko Price are never in boring fights and this could easily be a three-round, Fight of the Night slug-fest. Both Cerrone and Price get better after they have been hit a few times and both have proven they have a solid chin and can take a couple of shots.
Cerrone & Price Recent Fights
[matchup teamone='Cerrone' teamtwo='Price']
| Anthony Pettis, loss by decision | Fight 1 | Vicente Luque, loss by TKO |
| Conor McGregor, loss by TKO | Fight 2 | James Vick, win by KO |
| Justin Gaethje, loss by KO | Fight 3 | Geoff Neal, loss by TKO |
| Tony Ferguson, loss by TKO | Fight 4 | Tim Means, win by KO |
Cerrone has had a tough road as of late but I actually like this matchup for him. Cowboy is a solid striker and should have the ground advantage over Price. Cerrone also has proven his chin is much better at welterweight and Price doesn’t have that one-punch knockout power.
Expect this fight to go into the second or third round and Cerrone to take over with his cardio, winning by decision or late TKO.
Pick: Donald Cerrone (+138)
Other UFC Vegas 11 Picks:
- Khamzat Chimaev (-430): Chimaev should be able to take Meerschaert down and earn a TKO win. Yet, at -430 I wouldn’t bet that price.
- Johnny Walker (-122): Walker is the more powerful striker and will eventually connect and knock out Ryan Spann.
- Mackenzie Dern (-188): Dern will be able to get this fight to the ground and get a submission win.
Sports Writer
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
