Kentucky Derby Odds & Betting Preview: Tiz the Law -162 Favorite

• After a four-month delay because of COVID-19, the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs
• Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law is a very heavy favorite
• Who can upset Tiz the Law and create a strong payout in the Run for the Roses?

Between COVID-19 pushing the Kentucky Derby from May until September, no fans in attendance, top contenders dropping like flies, and the Belmont Stakes having already been run, the strangest Run for the Roses in a long time is finally here.

Kentucky Derby odds have fluctuated a lot over the past six months, but Tiz the Law is a constant. He has been among the favorites for most of the year, and the clear cut chalk for several months. While he keeps on winning, his top competition keeps getting hurt.

From Charlatan to Nadal, Maxfield, and most recently Art Collector, on paper the horses most likely to beat Tiz the Law have gone down one after another. Secondary candidates like Cezanne, Gamine, and Swiss Skydiver either didn’t qualify or elected to run in a different race.

Tiz the Law is going to be the biggest Kentucky Derby favorite since Arazi failed at a shade under even-money in 1992. It is possible he could equal or be heavier chalk than Spectacular Bid, who won at 3/5 in 1979.

With a huge favorite two questions pop up. Can he be beaten, and by who? Let’s look at the field. If you find a candidate to upset Tiz the Law there will be betting value.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds taken September 1

The 146th Kentucky Derby will be run at its traditional distance of a-mile-and-a-quarter. The 18 horses will be loaded into the new starting gate, which can accommodate up to 20 horses in one structure without needing an auxiliary gate, at 7:01 pm EST. Weather is expected to be in the low 80’s with just a 10 percent chance of rain. NBC has television coverage starting at 2:30 pm.

The Favorite

A winner of six out of seven career races, Tiz the Law is four-for-four this year. In June he won the shortened and rescheduled Belmont Stakes, the first Triple Crown race to be run this year.

Tiz the Law is owned by Sackatoga Stable and trained by 82-year-old Barclay Tagg. They are the same connections that won the 2003 Derby and Preakness Stakes with Funny Cide. Sackatoga is a group of old friends from Saratoga Springs, NY that invest modestly in New York-bred horses. After winning the Belmont Stakes, Tiz the Law won his ownership’s hometown’s biggest race, the Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

There is no question that Tiz the Law is the most decorated contender and is a deserving favorite. His post position, number 17, has never produced a Derby winner. He is sandwiched between the top two challengers

Top Contender

Just to the inside of Tiz the Law is Honor AP. In five career races he has won twice and finished second on three occasions. Off a five-month layoff he lost to Authentic in early February. Then in June, he turned the tables on that rival.

Honor AP has run just once since that inspiring victory, and it was sort of a flat effort when he finished behind Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes on August 1. However, at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, the Shared Belief was a little bit short, and having already earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby, Honor AP may not have been pushed as hard, as usual, that day.

Authentic is trained by Bob Baffert, who has conditioned the two recent Triple Crown winners. He bounced back from his loss to Honor AP by winning the Haskell Invitational.

Authentic has four wins in five starts. Did his lead towards the end of the Haskell decrease sharply because he was tiring, or just geared down since a win seemed inevitable? He will break from the extreme outside on Saturday.

Longshots

Ny Traffic nearly chased down Authentic in the Haskell. Of all the horses running in Louisville, he probably has faced the best opponents race after race. That said, he is constantly second. He has been the runner up in three straight races but it is possible so many top tier horses have opted not to run that he is as good as any challenger left.

Ny Traffic is versatile, he can win near the lead or off the pace, and is improving. There are worse options considering the price.

And then there is King Guillermo. Owned by former baseball star Victor Martinez, when asked what he thought about his horses drawing the number six post position he said he didn’t really know a lot about the importance of it. He had a dream as a ballplayer to own a Derby horse, and that dream got real when he won the Tampa Bay Derby as a huge longshot in February.

Trainer Juan Carlos Avila has spent almost all of his very successful career in Venezuela. Strange by American standards, King Guillermo has run just once since the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing second behind Nadal in May’s Arkansas Derby.

The Bet

Authentic is a terrific value. You can debate how impressive he was when winning the Haskell Invitational, but if you bet on him that day you cashed a ticket. His record is excellent, his connections first class, and if Tiz the Law falters, Authentic has an excellent chance to seize the opportunity.

Pick: Authentic (+800)