Trump’s Reelection Odds Improve to +104 in Spite of Biden’s Inspiring Convention Speech

• Joe Biden drew no bump from his powerful speech at the Democratic National Convention
• Biden’s odds of winning the 2020 US Presidential election have faded to -136
• Incumbent Donald Trump improved to a betting line of +104

Clearly, Joe Biden was bringing down the thunder during his speech on Thursday at the Democratic National Convention. The 2020 Presidential candidate’s words were moving. They were both poignant and powerful. He spoke from the heart and he moved people.

He also moved the 2020 election odds – in the wrong direction if the Democrats are hoping to win this thing.

On Monday, the leading online sportsbooks listed Biden at odds of -144, on average, to win the Nov. 3rd Presidential election. Today, Biden’s betting line has faded to -138.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump continues to improve his chances of winning reelection. His odds moved considerably, from +116 to +104.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Odds as of Aug. 21st.

Equally worrisome to the Democrats should be a prop wager on which party will win the White House come Nov. 3rd. The Republicans made a significant gain from +125 to +107. Meanwhile, the Democrats slumped from-156 to -136.

Biden Delivers the Goods

How impressive was Biden’s DNC speech? Even Fox News pundits acknowledged that he’d come with his A-game.

Biden’s stirring oratory skills blew a cavernous hole through Trump’s attempt to characterize him as bumbling and mentally declining. His words were smooth and eloquently delivered.

The Bidens embrace following Joe Biden's acceptance speech for the 2020 Democratic nomination. https://t.co/UYWnPdhFFB #DemConvention pic.twitter.com/t6S7rDMM9c

— ABC News (@ABC) August 21, 2020

Speaking to America’s pain from the more than 175,000 deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the former Vice-President displayed empathy, a quality that appears to be completely foreign to Trump.

Biden related his own experiences with personal loss and how he dealt with the pain.

What’s Behind the Trump Uptick?

Trump has made slow but steady gains in the betting odds for about a month now. His approval rating is also showing improvement. Currently, 42% of Americans approve of Trump, his best number since June. Biden’s average lead over Trump across nationals polls also slipped slightly, from 8.3% to 8%.

What factors are driving the Trump uptick? For starters, whenever Trump is in front of the camera – which is every day – he sucks up all the oxygen in the room.

He’s also done things in recent days – granted some of them were no more than symbolic gestures – that gave off the impression that he’s getting stuff done.

It makes me wonder whether Trump knows his order does nothing and doesn't care, or whether he doesn't know his order does nothing and thinks he's really sticking it to Democratic mayors by solving evictions in a single stroke.

— ◥◤Kriston Capps (@kristoncapps) August 20, 2020

The treaty deal announced between Israel and the United Arab Emirates was a foreign policy win for Trump.

As the COVID-19-induced moratorium on evictions nears an end, Trump signed an executive order earlier this month that he claimed would end all evictions.

In fact, the order he signed is merely directing federal agencies to take under consideration whether halting evictions is necessary as a health precaution during the pandemic. It doesn’t unilaterally prohibit landlords from evicting tenants.

Where’s the Biden Bump?

Generally, a convection creates a positive impact on a Presidential candidate’s betting odds. Following the 2016 DNC, Hillary Clinton’s odds shortened from -200 to -400. After the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump’s betting line improved from +250 to +210.

It could be that the impact of Biden’s speech is still coming. Perhaps now that people have seen him deliver a stirring speech, the bump will be emerging.

Biden is always a better speaker than people who know him for his gaffes expect, and last night he delivered. As FNC's Chris Wallace noted, Trump's attempt to convince voters Biden is mentally impaired backfired badly as he delivered “an enormously effective speech.”

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) August 21, 2020

The next few days should tell that tale in full. But the Dems better hope that there’s improvement around the corner. The RNC is slated for next week. That will create another opportunity for the Trump campaign to gain more momentum and further close the gap.