Yankees vs Phillies Odds, Lines, and Spread – July 27

• Yankees starter J.A. Happ makes his 2020 debut against his ex-team the Phillies, who counter with Jake Arrieta on July 27th at 7:05pm ET
• These teams have only played six times since 2015, splitting the series 3-3
• In the article below, check out the odds, analysis and a pick for the game

A new series begins for the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, as the two teams link up for a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1 takes place Monday at 7:05pm ET, with New York’s J.A. Happ dueling Philadelphia’s Jake Arrieta.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds taken July 26.

The Yankees used a late comeback to take their first series against the defending champion Washington Nationals, while the Phillies fell apart on Sunday to drop the rubber match against the Miami Marlins.

Happ Faces Familiar Foe

Once upon a time, J.A. Happ was a third round draft pick by the Phillies and enjoyed the first three-plus years of his career (including a World Series title) in the city of brotherly love.

JA Happ was dealing today 🔥

(via @Yankees) pic.twitter.com/5xmNztx2SD

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) February 22, 2020

The 37-year-old has since faced his old squad five times, posting better results against them than against any other team in the majors.

Since 2010, Happ is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.129 WHIP versus Philadelphia. That includes a win in 2018 with the Blue Jays, in which he tossed 6.2 innings and allowed only two earned runs.

None of those results are particularly recent, but it’s a nice trend nonetheless.

Phillies Career Stats vs Happ

Arrieta Not The Ace He Once Was

Jake Arrieta was the most untouchable starting pitcher in 2015, riding a 22-6 record and 1.77 ERA to the NL Cy Young award. Since then, the 34-year-old has hit a noticeable decline.

83 seconds of Jake Arrieta being the Filthiest Pitcher on the Planet (no-hitter/2015). 😯 pic.twitter.com/pilMR7bN0j

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 4, 2020

His ERA totals in the years that followed have been 3.10, 3.53, 3.96 and 4.64. He has also led the NL in wild pitches twice in that span.

Clearly, he is not the pitcher he once was. Arrieta was trending particularly down in the latter half of last season, posting an 0-2 record with a 5.34 ERA in seven starts before his season ended in mid-August with a bone spur in his throwing elbow.

A handful of Yankees have never faced him, as you can see, but most of the ones who’ve faced him have done damage.

Yankees Career Stats vs Arrieta

Yankees Offense Scuffling

The Yankees have scratched out a pair of wins against a tough Nationals team, despite producing only nine runs in three games. Their team OPS of .639 is 19th in the majors.

It is far too early to be concerned about those numbers, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.

Yet another Filthy Patrick Corbin Slider…. 😷 pic.twitter.com/Rr9fn5BUWH

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2020

On the flip side of that coin, the Bronx Bombers are bound to break out at some point. Could that happen against Arrieta, who’s been trending downward in recent years? Of course it could.

Might be best to lean on the under in this matchup, given the Yankees’ slow start, but New York is in prime position to win.

Pick: New York Yankees (-144)