Oaklawn Park Count Fleet Sprint Handicap & Apple Blossom Handicap Odds & Predictions

• Two graded stakes races are on the Oaklawn Park card Saturday
• Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress will be the favorite in the Apple Blossom
• Where is the best betting value on Saturday afternoon?

With sports virtually stopped, it is completely reasonable to want action. Horse racing has some decent races each week Sunday through Friday. However, Saturday’s bring the best the sport of kings has to offer.

This Saturday Oaklawn Park has two graded stakes races, the Count Fleet for older male sprinters, and the Apple Blossom for the ladies going a-mile-and-a-sixteenth. Those who follow the ponies will be familiar with some of the horses running

Let’s take a look at the horses entered in each race and try to hone in on a winner or two.

2020 Count Fleet Spring Handicap Odds

All odds taken April 17.

Favorites

Whitmore and Hidden Scroll will be the two favorites in this one. In a lot of ways, this race is what Whitmore does best. Of 13 career wins eight have come at Oaklawn Park and 11 at this six furlong distance. Both of his races this year have been at six furlongs at Oaklawn, a runner up finish in February and a victory last month. His best win came back in the summer of 2018 in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga.

Whitmore has career earnings of just under $3 million, but he has just one victory in the last eight races. Between three and five of those events were against better fields than this, but his one win was against a group not as strong as he faces today. He has won this race twice, in 2017 and 2018.

Lightly raced Hidden Scroll makes his sixth career start and second as a four-year-old. He crushed a restricted optional claiming field by 12 lengths at Gulfstream Park last month. His maiden win came by 14 lengths, but he was not competitive in the Florida Derby. That said sprints seem to be his game, and he has elite early speed.

Other Contenders

Flagstaff ships in after a Grade 2 win at Santa Anita. He has three victories in his last five races and the level of competition has gotten better and better. His only two losses recently are by two-and-a-half lengths in a Grade 1 event, finishing behind Omaha Beach and Shancelot, and missing by a neck in a Grade 2.

Hog Creek Hustle has been running against very strong competition and not winning but not embarrassing himself. He pulled the upset last June in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Handicap at Belmont Park. If the tempo is very fast, as it likely will be, he will be running hard late.

Analysis

This race has a ton of early speed horses. Bobby’s Wicked One, Flagstaff, Mr. Jagermeister, Hidden Scroll and Share the Upside all want to be forwardly placed. That should mean it sets up for someone coming off the pace. Whitmore is the logical choice in that scenario, but Hog Creek Hustle offers more value. We’d play them both and vary our percentages based on the amount of risk you want to take.

The $600,000 Apple Blossom Handicap has been won over the years by a who’s who of horses including Zenyatta, Azeri, and Paseana. Once again, this year’s field is strong.

2020 Apple Blossom Handicap Odds

Favorite: Serengeti Empress

The winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks had not won since that race before romping last time out in the Azeri Handicap at Oaklawn.

She has six wins in her career including three at this distance. While her resume makes her a reasonable favorite, she has recent losses to Lady Apple and Street Band, two horses that she faces again today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ortn01OorJE

Other Contenders

Ce Ce will break from the extreme outside in her first race at Oaklawn Park. She has twice raced against strong competition, finishing fourth against a field that included Serengeti Empress in last June’s Acorn Stakes, and winning the Beholder Mile last month at Santa Anita. She is three for five lifetime, and seems to be hitting her stride.

Come Dancing is returning to the track for the first time since a sixth place finish in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in November. She won four graded stakes races between the start of April and end of September last year including the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga. Her only career win in a race this long came in the slop at Belmont in 2018.

Lady Apple put together the race of her life in January beating Serengeti Empress and Street Band. In the slop last time out she didn’t do much running at all. In 13 races she has six wins, but only the race two back is good enough to get to the winner’s circle today.

Ollie’s Candy won a grade one race last July, and has been solid though not spectacular against very strong competition since. She was third, well back behind Ce Ce in her seasonal debut last month. This is her favorite distance and trainer John Sadler is terrific in the second race off a layoff.

Analysis

This is a very strong race with a lot of serious options. Serengeti Empress is the classiest of the group and will be in front, can she hold the lead? Ce Ce is the up and comer who was incredible in her last start. Can she duplicate it? Longshots Point of Honor and Cookie Dough are not without hope either. Our head says that like the Count Fleet, this race is full of speed and Ce Ce off the pace is the play. Our heart thinks Serengeti Empress is a champion that rises one more time.