Kentucky Derby Odds Now See Charlatan, Authentic and Tiz The Law as Top 3 Favorites

• The Kentucky Derby has been moved from May to September because of COVID-19
• Futures odds have been recalibrated to reflect the new Derby date
• Read on for updated odds and predictions for September’s Kentucky Derby

History would look a lot different if they moved the finish line in the middle of the season. Think about if elections were held earlier, or a best of seven series became best of eleven. For months, horses have been gearing up for the Kentucky Derby on May 2. With the event now slated for September 5, odds have fluctuated.

Those who follow the Breeders Cup know that horses who did their best running in the spring often are not the same as those who are strongest in the fall. That said, winning early prep races is a decent sign you are among the top three year olds.

Kentucky Derby odds are shifting, and oftentimes, uncertainty leads to value. Consider how much easier it is to bet on who will win the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs as compared with in August. What if on January 1 they added six more weeks to the regular season? It would create questions, but opportunity too.

Let’s look closely at some of the options.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds taken Mar. 20.

Favorites: Charlatan, Authentic, Tiz The Law

Nobody had see Charlatan race until mid February. Now he is two for two, and it doesn’t get a lot more dominating. That said, his level of competition is pretty low.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SNh7blOqpQ

Authentic is three for three with two stakes wins. If the Derby were in May, he would be in sweet shape. However, a lot can happen between now and September.

With three wins in four starts Tiz The Law is coming off an incredibly impressive three year old debut. Like Authentic, he appears to be peaking for May, but the talent is clearly present.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7iwR3lpVtc

Top Contenders: Nadal, Maxfield, Honor AP

Nadal has run three times, and he has been a pro winning each time. The level of competition has been ok if not mighty, but he looks reliable in a sport that lacks consistency. Nadal backed up the low price last weekend in The Rebel Stakes.

Maxfield hasn’t run since the Breeders Futurity in October and it was going to be tight to have him ready in May. He clearly has a ton of talent, and now probably is in a more comfortable time table to be at his best in September.

Honor AP ran a pretty strong second to Authentic in his stakes debut two weeks ago at Santa Anita in the San Felipe. His first effort after a five month layoff was a pretty good indication that he is going to continue to improve.

Longshot: Ete Indien and King Guillermo

Ete Indien was shot out of a cannon in the Fountain Of Youth, a dominating performance. What will happen when he doesn’t have an easy lead? His four races in Florida have all been strong. The one trip to Kentucky not so much.

If you like a true longshot, how about King Guillermo? He wasn’t even originally nominated for the Triple Crown, but after winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 49/1, he’s on the trail now. One shot wonder or overlooked?

The Bet: Honor AP

We’re talking about a race that is now half a year away. Horses get hurt, peak too early, etc. We have no interest in taking a short price. Honor AP is back on the track, looking good, should enjoy longer distances, and has time to gear up for September.