Saudi Cup Odds & Betting Preview: Maximum Security & McKinzie Leading Favorites

• The first Saudi Cup will take place Saturday at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Saudi Arabia
• With prize money of $20 million this is the richest race in the world
• Several notable American horses are across the world to compete. See the odds for all contenders below

Since the first-ever running of the Dubai World Cup in 1996 horse racing has reserved a date on the calendar, the last Saturday in March, to focus attention on the Middle East. With the popularity and success of the event in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is getting in on the action.

Saturday’s first-ever Saudi Cup is a month before the World Cup in Dubai, so horses can consider running in both races and not shipping across the world for just one race. There is a huge prize for each event, much more than any event in North America, so the incentive is there.

The Saudi Cup has a very strong field including American heavyweights Maximum Security and McKinzie. Let’s look at the odds, handicap the field, and see if we can find some value.

2020 Saudi Cup Odds

Odds taken Feb. 25th.

Favorites: Maximum Security & McKinzie

Maximum Security will be making his four-year-old debut after one of the more interesting three-year-old seasons in horse racing history. He was not well thought of, running in a claiming race to begin his career, but nobody bought him, he won, and after three more victories was among the favorites at the Kentucky Derby. He finished first in America’s most famous race but was disqualified.

After a runner up finish in a second-tier race in June, he won the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational in July, and then took two solid events in October and December.

McKinzie was going to be a Kentucky Derby favorite in 2018, but got hurt after starting his career with three wins in four races. Running against the best of the best last year, he ran seven times, won twice, and finished second on five occasions. His victory in August’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga was a major highlight.

McKinzie last ran in the Breeders Cup Classic, finishing as the runner up to Vino Rosso despite going off as the favorite. Today’s racing distance, just under a mile-and-an-eighth, probably is better for McKinzie than the mile-and-a-quarter that he raced at in the Classic. All seven of his career wins have come at a-mile-and-an-eighth or less.

Top Contender: Mucho Gusto

His four-year-old debut last month was a dandy, but it is hard to fully assess how good the win was at the Pegasus World Cup. In previous runnings of the event the purse was enormous and field excellent. With a lower prize this year, the competition is more difficult to judge. That said, he won impressively.

Last year was a mixed bag for Mucho Gusto. He started pretty well and won a couple of second-tier races in May and June before running a strong second to Maximum Security at the Haskell. Things fizzled a bit after that when he was third at the Travers and fourth in the Oklahoma Derby.

Longshot: Midnight Bisou

A girl facing the boys for the first time, Midnight Bisou was scheduled to retire at the end of last year, but why? She had won seven straight races before finishing second in November’s Breeders Cup Distaff. Sure being upset by Blue Prize was surprising, but there are no indications that her talent is slipping.

In August her gutty win in Saratoga’s Personal Ensign Stakes showed the heart of a champion.

This is the toughest field she has faced, but everybody is saying incredibly positive things about her training and chances. There are certainly worse longshot options out there.

The Bet: McKinzie

If you throw out the horses who are pretty untested having run against modest competition in the Middle East, and just look really closely at the shippers, this race comes down to Maximum Security and McKinzie with really good chances, and a few others that are more value-based propositions.

McKinzie is as classy as they come, running at a favorite distance, and having the best trainer in the world, Bob Baffert, on your team is always a positive. Getting a little odds edge over Maximum Security seals the wager.