South Carolina Primary Odds Show Biden Taking Lead Over Sanders

• Joe Biden is now the -130 favorite to win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary
• Bernie Sanders was the odds-on chalk last week, but has dropped to +105 
• See the updated South Carolina primary plus betting advice, below

South Carolina could prove to be Joe Biden’s first step along the comeback trail.

Biden was the frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination odds for months. However, he’s fallen well off the pace in recent weeks. Biden’s poor performances early on in the primaries and caucuses reflected the downturn in the health of his campaign.

However, Biden finished second in the Nevada caucuses and, for the first time, he’s listed as the chalk to win a Democratic primary.

Sportsbooks peg Biden as the -130 favorite to win the South Carolina primary this Saturday (Feb. 29th). Bernie Sanders, who’s now heavily favored to win the nomination, is now the second favorite to win South Carolina at +105.

South Carolina Democratic Primary Odds

Odds taken Feb. 20.

Polls Favor Biden

An NBC News/Marist University poll was released Monday. It’s showing Biden to be leading the way in South Carolina. Biden is drawing 27% of Democratic primary voters in the state.

Sanders isn’t far behind at 23%, though, and the poll lists a margin of error of plus-minus six percentage points.

Both the odds and the polls also agree that South Carolina is going to be a two-candidate race between Biden and Sanders.

South Carolina NBC/WSJ Poll:

Before last week’s debate
Biden 29%
Sanders 19%
Steyer 14%
Buttigieg 9%
Warren 6%

After last week’s debate
Biden 25%
Sanders 25%
Steyer 15%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 9% https://t.co/QelyFCLxtR

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 24, 2020

Tom Steyer is third in this betting market at odds of +5000. He’s also a distant third in the polls at 15%.

Pete Buttigieg (9%), Elizabeth Warren (8%) and Amy Klobuchar (5%) are even further back. Sportsbooks assigned each of them identical odds of +10000 to win in South Carolina.

Joe Picking Up Steam

Biden (20.2%) was a distant second to Sanders (46.8%) in Nevada. Nonetheless, he was second, his best result to date. Biden is seeking to build on that factor.

Biden finished a disappointing fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary. Those results put his Presidential hopes in serious jeopardy.

Biden, 77, has always polled well with African American voters. He served eight years as Vice-President to Barack Obama, the first black President. He’s well-known and popular among South Carolina political leaders thanks to his 36 years of service in the US Senate.

South Carolina’s registered Democratic voters are comprised of approximately 60 percent African Americans.

The Biden camp believes that the mostly-white populations of Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t offer a true reflection of the popularity of the Democratic contenders. He’s expecting to perform better in more diverse states such as South Carolina. Biden is anticipating a similar outcome in many of the 16 states that will go to the polls on March 3rd, also known as Super Tuesday.

However, it’s worth noting that Nevada includes a significant Latino population. That state went heavily for Sanders.

South Carolina Should Go For Biden

Biden figures to gain his first primary win in South Carolina. But it might be closer than people think.

Sanders has steadily made inroads into Biden’s lead in the state over the past month.

We ain’t buying the narrative of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. South Carolina is the first real test reflective of the soul of the Democratic Party @JoeBiden! pic.twitter.com/CNLL2jK09b

— Marlon Kimpson, Esq. (@KimpsonForSC) February 24, 2020

But Biden knows that this is a make-or-break state for him.

To lose in South Carolina would do irreparable damage to his fading Presidential hopes.

Pick: Joe Biden (-130)

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