Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem Australian Open Final Odds & Pick

• Novak Djokovic is listed as a -400 favorite to defeat Dominic Thiem in the Australian Open men’s singles final
• Djokovic is the defending champion and has won a record seven Australian Open titles
• Thiem is playing in his third Grand Slam final in as many years but is 0-2

Playing in the Australian Open final is old hat for Novak Djokovic but it’s all new to Dominic Thiem.

Djokovic is a seven-time men’s singles champion in Melbourne. That’s the tournament record.

Thiem, Djokovic’s opponent in Sunday’s 3:30 am EST final, has never previously played for the Australian Open title. In fact, it will be his first Grand Slam title match on a hard court.

Both of his prior Grand Slam final appearances were on the clay of Roland Garros at the French Open.

Sportsbooks have opened with Djokovic as a healthy -400 favorite to win his eighth Aussie Open, coinciding with his average Australian Open odds of -395.

Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem Australian Open Final Odds

Odds taken Jan. 31

Not only has defending champion Djokovic won a record seven titles in Melbourne, he’s 7-0 in finals there. Thiem is 0-2 in his two Grand Slam final appearances.

Djokovic Wins Aussie Open in Bunches

Among his seven Australian Open titles, Djokovic won back-to-back in 2015-16. He captured three in a row from 2011-13.

Novak Djokovic Slam Final Opponents By Ranking:
1
38
1
5
1
2
2
2
4
3
2
2
1
4
6
9
2
2
2
2
3
8
3
2
3
5

26 in total.

25 of 26 against top 10 (96.2%).

22 of 26 against top 5 (84.6%)

18 of 26 against top 3 (69.2%).

14 of 24 against top 2 (58.3%).

— Jason (@Certinfy) January 31, 2020

In fact, repeat winners have been a recent Australian Open trend in the men’s singles division. Roger Federer won in 2017-18.

Roger Over and Out

Djokovic rallied from 2-5 down to defeat World #3 Roger Federer 7-6(1), 6-4, 6-3 in their semifinal.

It was his fourth straight Australian Open semifinal win against Federer.

Djokovic is 42-2 in his last 44 Aussie Open matches.

Thiem Fit to Win Tiebreakers

Thiem has taken the hard route to the final. The world #5 rallied from a first-set loss to defeat Alexander Zverev 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4) in their semifinal match. They battled for three hours and 42 minutes.

Thiem was also taxed to topple world #1 Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. The Austrian won that match 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (6). It took four hours and 18 minutes to complete.

Thiem a Tough Out for Djokovic

Overall, Djokovic holds a 6-4 edge in head-to-head meetings with Thiem. Lately, though, it’s the Austrian who maintains the upper hand.

Djokovic won their first five matches. Since then, it’s been all Thiem. He’s won the last two, and four of the past five.

It should be noted that just one of those wins for Thiem came on a hard court. But it also must be noted that the win came in their most recent match when Thiem beat Djokovic 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) in the round robin portion of the ATP Finals.

This will be their fourth meeting in a Grand Slam event, and all four have taken place in the quarterfinals or later.

Thiem won 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in last year’s French Open semifinals. He also took a 7-6 (5), 6-3, 6-0 decision in the 2017 French Open quarterfinals.

Djokovic downed Thiem 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semis at Roland Garros.

Props Worth Considering

Last year, these two players staged an epic 53-game semifinal at the French Open. During this tournament, Djokovic is winning matches on average by 28.5 games. That average jumps to 32 games since the quarterfinals.

Thiem is working much harder to win. He’s averaged 40 games a match, and 47 games over his quarter and semifinal.

"I think he has a chance. He is playing the best tennis of his life" — Alexander Zverev on Dominic Thiem playing Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final

— Christopher Clarey 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 (@christophclarey) January 31, 2020

Just one of their past four meetings ended in straight sets. Sportsbooks are offering an alternate total games line of +105 on +39.5 games. It’s worth the play.

Thiem is likely to take at least a set off of Djokovic. Sportsbooks give odds of +185 to Thiem winning the second set. That’s also a play worth taking. Whereas Djokovic to win 3-1 is priced at +255.

It’s Still All About The Joker

If Thiem wins, he’ll be the first player born in the 1990s to win a Grand Slam event. If Djokovic wins, he’ll move to #1 in the world rankings.

Djokovic vs Thiem Stats

Thiem is trying to achieve one of the hardest accomplishments in tennis – beating Nadal and Djokovic in the same Grand Slam tournament. It hasn’t been done in the Australian Open since Stan Wawrinka in 2014.

Thiem will put up a fight but Djokovic is playing too consistently well to be beaten.

Pick: Novak Djokovic (-400)