UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

• Conor McGregor makes his return to the Octagon at UFC 246 as a heavy betting favorite
• Can Donald Cerrone pull off the upset as a +277 underdog?
• Former champs Holly Holm and Anthony Pettis are also on the card

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is set for its first card of 2020 (UFC 246) on Jan. 18 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

In the main event, Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited and highly-anticipated return to the Octagon against Donald Cerrone at welterweight. The co-main attraction sees former bantamweight champion Holly Holm rematch Raquel Pennington. The main card also features Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira while, in the prelims, surging prospect Maycee Barber looks to stay undefeated.

The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 10:00 PM ET.

Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Odds

All odds as of Jan. 13.

Will McGregor Get His First Win Since 2016?

Conor McGregor (21-4) has not fought since UFC 229 in October 2018, when he lost by submission to Khabib Nurmagomedov in a lightweight-title bout. Before that came his legendary boxing match against Floyd Mayweather, which he entered as a two-division UFC champ after knocking out Eddie Alvarez to become the UFC lightweight champion.

The Irishman also has notables wins over Jose Aldo, Nate Diaz, Dustin Poirier, Max Holloway, and Chad Mendes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G0l-_bv_HI&t=105s

Donald Cerrone (36-13 and one no-contest) is riding a two-fight losing streak after a hot start to 2020. In his last fight at welterweight, he submitted Mike Perry and then moved down to lightweight to chase the title. In the lower division, he started off with a knockout win over Alexander Hernandez, then he beat Al Iaquinta by decision. He has since lost to Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje by TKO.

“Cowboy” has notable wins over Matt Brown, Benson Henderson, Eddie Alvarez, and Edson Barboza.

Tale of the Tape

Cerrone has proven he has a great chin and McGregor will need to land clean to get the finish. Yet, at 170 pounds, both men will have a little more weight behind their power shots and, if McGregor is going to emerge victorious, I think it will be in the first two rounds by a  left hand that connects on the chin and puts Cowboy down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzEqzhTUT34

The later this fight goes, the better it is for Cerrone, who should have a cardio edge. If it goes into the fourth or fifth round, he may very well submit McGregor. But, in the end, I don’t see that happening. McGregor will connect early and earn a knockout win in the first or second round.

Pick: Conor McGregor (-325)

Holly Holm vs. Raquel Pennington Odds

Will Holm Go 2-0 Against Pennington?

Holly Holm (12-5) has struggled as of late going 2-5 in her last seven but is still very dangerous. In her last fight, she suffered a first-round knockout loss to Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight title. Before that, she beat Megan Anderson at featherweight after dropping a decision to Cris Cyborg for the featherweight belt.

She is the former bantamweight champion after a stunning knockout win over Ronda Rousey, but she lost her belt in her first title defense to Miesha Tate.

Holm has notable wins over Pennington, Bethe Correia, and Marion Reneau.

Raquel Pennington (10-7) is coming off a very impressive win over Irene Aldana by split-decision in 2019. Before that, she lost back-to-back fights to Germaine de Randamie and Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight title.

Pennington started out her career 5-5 including being 2-2 in the UFC with a split-decision loss to Holly Holm in 2015. “Rocky” has notable wins over Miesha Tate, Jessica Andrade, and Roxanne Modafferi.

Tale of the Tape

Holm is a kickboxer who likes to set up head kicks, while Pennington is a boxer who also likes to stand and trade, so it is unlikely this fight will hit the mat. I believe Holm is the more technical striker as she uses her kicks to hurt the body and head. Pennington will need to close the distance and get inside to neutralize Holm’s kicks, but that is easier said than done.

In the end, Holm should be able to outpoint Pennington and earn another decision win.

Pick: Holly Holm (-137)

UFC 246 Main Card Odds

Here are the odds for the other fights on the main card.

Alexey Oleynik vs. Maurice Greene Odds

Claudia Gadelha vs. Alexa Grasso Odds

Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira Odds