LSU Opens as 3.5-Point Favorite vs Clemson in National Championship, Spread Jumps to 4.5 in 10 Mins

• Sportsbooks have the LSU Tigers as 4.5-point favorites over the defending champion Clemson Tigers in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
• The LSU Tigers won their most recent national championship in 2007
• Clemson will be seeking to defend its CFP title – read below for a prediction on how the line might move 

Can any team prevent the LSU Tigers from achieving their apparent destiny as College Football Playoff National Champions?

The defending champion Clemson Tigers will get the final shot at it.

The #1-ranked LSU Tigers are 14-0. They absolutely drubbed the #4 Oklahoma Sooners 63-28 in the Peach Bowl, the first of Saturday’s two CFP semifinals.

LSU beat the #5 Georgia Bulldogs 37-10 in the SEC title game. The Tigers also show victories against #12 Auburn (23-20), #13 Alabama (46-41), and #9 Florida (42-28).

This will be the fifth straight time that an SEC team is favored to win the national championship game.

Clemson, ranked #3, is also 14-0. The Tigers are playing in the title game for the fourth time in five seasons after Saturday’s 29-23 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl. Clemson will be seeking to become the first school since Alabama (2011-12) to win back-to-back national titles.

Sportsbooks have LSU as the 4.5-point chalk to win the game on January 13 at 8 PM ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

CFP National Championship Game Odds

Odds taken Dec. 28.

LSU is also the +129 favorite in the National Championship odds. The Tigers won their most recent national championship in 2007, beating Ohio State 38-24.

Who Can Hold Those LSU Tigers?

LSU has dominated college football this season. The Tigers are the NCAA’s #1 scoring offense, averaging 48.8 points per game.

LSU is the 5th team in FBS history to have a 5,000 yard passer, a 1,000 yard rusher & a 1,000-yd receiver in a single season.

— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) December 29, 2019

The win over Oklahoma marked the third time this season they’ve topped 60 points in a game. The 63 points were a record for a CFP game. Auburn is the only team to hold LSU under 36 points this season.

Joe Burrow has thrown 7 TD passes, tied for the most ever in a bowl game. … It's halftime. #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/AZcs1lbHSD

— ESPN (@espn) December 28, 2019

Quarterback Joe Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner, leads the NCAA with 55 touchdown passes. He threw for an NCAA bowl game-record seven scores and 493 yards in the win over the Sooners, and sat out much of the fourth quarter. Burrow also ran for a TD.

He’s just the fifth QB in NCAA history to pass for over 50 TDs and 5,000 yards in a season.

Clemson’s Tigers Aren’t Shabby

Clemson has won 29 games in a row. QB Trevor Lawrence is 25-0 as a starter. The Tigers routed #24 Virginia in the ACC title game but that was their first win all season over a ranked team until Saturday’s victory over the #2 Buckeyes.

Clemson is a championship program for a reason. What a game. What a comeback. LSU-Clemson for the national title. Let’s get it on.

— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) December 29, 2019

They rallied from a 16-0 deficit to beat Ohio State. It was the first time Clemson had trailed in a game at halftime in 15 months.

National Championship Trends

Three of the last four Heisman Trophy winners who’ve won the national championship in the same season hailed from SEC schools – Alabama’s Derrick Henry (2015) and Mark Ingram (2009) and Auburn’s Cam Newton (2010).

https://twitter.com/SDS/status/1211143265333977094?s=20

Although an SEC team has also been favored in the past four title games, they’re just 2-2 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in those games.

This is the fourth time that Oklahoma has lost in a CFP semifinal game. The teams that beat the Sooners are 0-3 in the CFP title game.

How Will the Line Move?

Sportsbooks set the opening line at LSU -3.5 and it jumped to -4.5 in a matter of 10 minutes. Expect that trend to continue. Playing in New Orleans, it’s basically a home game for LSU, and their rabid fans figure to wager big on them.

LSU or Clemson will be:

-15-0
-with a win over the strongest Playoff field yet
-if it's LSU, the schedule strength will have been absurd
-if Clemson, they'll have won a road game to clinch it

Whoever wins will have a perfectly legit Best Team Ever case

— Alex Kirshner (@alex_kirshner) December 29, 2019

However, note that Clemson won both its recent titles as underdogs. The Tigers were +5 against Alabama last season and +6.5 against the Crimson Tide in 2017.

Clemson is 3-0 ATS in CFP title games.