Opening Democratic New Hampshire Primary Odds: Bernie Sanders Listed as Odds-On Favorite

• Joe Biden has been trending downward in New Hampshire, which suggests he’s not a good bet to win its primary
• Bernie Sanders leads most NH polls, but the margins are quite small
• Pete Buttigieg is close to Sanders and has a good shot to win despite +255 odds

As the Democratic candidates in the running for the party’s nomination are currently threatening to boycott the December debate, a lot of attention is shifting to the Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic Caucuses. Bernie Sanders currently leads in New Hampshire and is the clear-cut favorite in the latest political futures. Is he a good bet to win in the Granite State?

Odds to Win 2020 New Hampshire Primary

Odds taken Dec. 16. 

Polling All Over The Map

Although we still have plenty of time before primary season really gets going (the Iowa caucuses begin in February 2020), it’s interesting to note that the polling is all over the place. It’s fairly clear that the voters are not behind any one candidate and there are differing opinions in different parts of the country.

“The core vision of my campaign is to establish a sense of belonging in the United States where there has been a sense of exclusion.”

—@PeteButtigieg pic.twitter.com/vMvdIwU62v

— Team Pete HQ (@PeteForAmerica) December 16, 2019

As of right now, Pete Buttigieg has a clear lead in Iowa, Sanders has a slight lead in New Hampshire, while Joe Biden leads in Nevada and South Carolina. Elizabeth Warren has closed the gap on Biden in Nevada, so there’s potential for further swings.

If four different candidates win the first four states, it would demonstrate how undecided the party is right now.

Sanders Has The Lead In New Hampshire

Sanders is the current frontrunner in New Hampshire but he’s leading by just 1.3 points, according to RealClearPolitics, which averaged out the latest polls. The latest WHDH/Boston Globe poll put Sanders up +4, the latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll has Sanders at +2, and the latest WBUR/MassINC actually has Buttigieg up +1.

I finally figured out why @BernieSanders is running for president. #NowStreaming pic.twitter.com/wLujGckwwL

— Hasan Minhaj (@hasanminhaj) December 15, 2019

Buttigieg was higher in New Hampshire and had a comfortable lead just a couple of weeks ago, but he’s trending downward while Sanders has climbed up. Sanders has been up and down as he was as high as 26.5% in April and was as low as 11.5% in October. Now he’s back up 19.0%.

Looks Like A Two-Horse Race

If you analyze the trend lines, New Hampshire looks like a two-horse race. Of course, things could change, but as of right now, Joe Biden has been consistently trending downwards in New Hampshire. Elizabeth Warren has had virtually the same trajectory as Biden, tanking over the last month.

As for the rest of the field, we’ve seen slight upticks for Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang, but they’re not really in the running here.

I’m grateful to have the support of Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin. It’s time we come together and remember who we are as Americans: we treat each other with dignity, we give hate no safe harbor, and we leave nobody behind. pic.twitter.com/WxOTxVmneP

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) December 16, 2019

At this point, I wouldn’t mind taking a shot with Buttigieg as an underdog here. I think he’ll win Iowa and start to build some momentum going into New Hampshire. Remember, the New Hampshire vote is on February 11th, which is a week after Iowa.

This is really more of a toss-up than the odds suggest. That being the case, I’ll take a flier on the +255.

Pick: Buttigieg (+255)