Oregon vs Seton Hall Picks & Odds: Ducks Favored by One in Battle 4 Atlantis

• No. 11 Oregon is 5-0, averaging a double-digit margin of victory
• No. 13 Seton Hall is 4-1, losing narrowly to powerhouse Michigan State
• Analysis and a pregame pick for this game is featured below

Top-15 foes Oregon (5-0) and Seton Hall (4-1) kick off their Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Wednesday (9:30 PM ET) with an evening matchup in Nassau, Bahamas. Both teams are off to strong starts in what will be a long season — but this is the type of game that could factor into their fate when the selection committee assembles in March to decide their seed-line in the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

Out of respect for the Ducks and the Pirates, oddsmakers have placed a tight line on the Oregon vs. Seton Hall odds, with the Ducks seeing a slight edge.

Odds taken Nov. 26.

(Nearly) Uncharted Territory

As is often the case in non-conference college basketball matchups, there is very limited history between these two programs. And even then, that history points toward a close game.

The Ducks and Pirates met in the first round of the NCAA Tournament back in March 2000, with Seton Hall squeaking out a 72-71 overtime win thanks to a buzzer-beating layup. Of course, many of the players in Thursday’s game weren’t alive for that. And perhaps none of them have seen it.

None of Seton Hall's players have seen Sha's coast-to-coast winner vs. Oregon in 2000. Lost footage?

— Jerry Carino (@NJHoopsHaven) March 16, 2017

So, obviously, that means nothing. The 2019 rematch is a blank slate.

What Does KenPom Say?

The magical website that is kenpom.com offers plenty of insight from back-end statistics to help understand this matchup.

Ducks Face No. 13 Seton Hall in Battle 4 Atlantishttps://t.co/ZgaGBNxROx#GoDucks #AlwaysUs

— Oregon Men's Basketball (@OregonMBB) November 25, 2019

KenPom — which has Oregon ranked 18th and Seton Hall ranked 19th — gives Oregon a 51-percent chance to win the game, predicting a 71-70 victory. It doesn’t get much closer than that, right?

Here’s where the teams differ, though: Oregon has the slight edge in rankings for adjusted offense (16th) and defense (33rd), compared to Seton Hall (20th and 35th, respectively).

Here's the quick mix from today's 'W' … 🎥#HALLin pic.twitter.com/7qbW5r83nZ

— Seton Hall Men's Basketball (@SetonHallMBB) November 23, 2019

The Ducks have been considered slightly lucky, however, with a .021 luck rating (145th) — while Seton Hall has been slightly unlucky, with a -.109 (299th).

As far as strength of schedule so far, Oregon has the edge. Sure, Seton Hall played — and lost to — Michigan State (ranked No. 2 in KenPom), but none of its other opponents have been ranked inside KenPom’s top 100. Oregon, meanwhile, has beaten two top-50 schools: Memphis (with James Wiseman) and Houston.

Contributions up-and-down the lineup in tonight's big win.#GoDucks pic.twitter.com/j2p2c0iJ3S

— Oregon Men's Basketball (@OregonMBB) November 13, 2019

Triple Threat

Oregon has been among the nation’s best both offensively and defensively from beyond the arc. The Ducks are fourth in the country in three-point shooting (42.7%) and second in three-point defense (20.5%).

Much of that, at least on the offensive side, is thanks to Anthony Mathis, a senior shooting guard who is an otherworldly 20-for-31 (64.5%) from three. It won’t be sustained for the season, but he’s on quite the hot streak for now.

Shooters shoot, right @mathis290? 🎯

Anthony Mathis was a living cheat code tonight dropping a career-high 3️⃣0️⃣ points off 9️⃣-1️⃣1️⃣ from downtown. 🥵 pic.twitter.com/6tvq9i6Xw6

— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) November 10, 2019

Prediction Time

Every game has the chance to go either way, but that is really the case here. It’s a dangerous matchup to put money on, but that also makes it an exciting game to tune in for. If I had to pick, I’d go with Mathis’s hot hand and the scorching Oregon Ducks.

Oregon and Seton Hall have scored at least 70 points each in nine of their 10 combined games, so I’ll take the over as well.

Pick: Oregon -1.0 (-110) and over 139.0 (-105)