Mavs vs Rockets: Over 9-3 in Dallas’ Past 12 games

• The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets clash Sunday afternoon (Nov. 24, 3:30 PM ET)
• The Mavs are 5.5-point underdogs and the total is set at 232.0
• Dallas and Houston both average 117.9 points per game, the most in the Western Conference

It’s a battle of the top two teams in the Southwest division Sunday afternoon (Nov. 24, 3:30 PM ET) in Houston. The scorching hot Dallas Mavericks (10-5) square off the Houston Rockets (11-5) in a game that is bound to feature plenty of scoring. Both the Mavs and Rockets average a Western Conference best 117.9 points per game and Dallas is fresh off back-to-back 140+ point outings.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Odds

All odds taken Nov. 23

The spread for this game opened Rockets -6, with a meaty total of 232.0. Both teams have been crushing against the spread over the last week, and the line has already moved slightly in the Mavericks favor. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four contests, with the over hitting in three straight games. The Mavs own the the league’s highest offensive rating, thanks in large part to their MVP candidate Luka Doncic.

Sophomore Sensation

Dallas’ sophomore sensation is playing at a higher level than any other 20-year-old before him. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 9.7 assists and 10.4 rebounds per game, and leads the NBA with seven triple-doubles. He’s one of only two players in the league to average at least 25 points, 7.5 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game (along with LeBron James), and he’s the first player his age to ever carry a 35.2% usage rate.

.@luka7doncic has been ???? good‼️

(@EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/z2CgDgHM1t

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 21, 2019

Earlier this week versus the Warriors he had 22 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds in the first quarter alone, and two nights ago he ripped the Cavs for 30 points, 14 assists and 7 rebounds in just 28 minutes. Needless to say, Doncic and the Mavericks offense is the real deal.

Dallas has scored 285 points in its past two games and has eclipsed 130 points in 27% of its contests this season. They’ve knocked down 42 3-point shots in their last two outings, and are five games above .500 for the first time since 2016. Now they get to face a Houston team that’s not exactly famous for its commitment to defense.

Harden is in MVP Form

No player in the league has his effort at the defensive end questioned more than James Harden. Fortunately for the 2018 MVP, a lackluster performance in your own end can easily be forgiven when you’re averaging more points than any other player in 56 years.

Even James Harden surprises himself sometimes pic.twitter.com/ta2kS09gZT

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 23, 2019

Harden is pouring in 38.3 points per game this season, which is the most since Wilt Chamberlain in 1962-63. He once again leads the league in usage rate, despite the arrival of Russell Westbrook, and he’s made 42% of his 3-point attempts over his last 11 games.

The Rockets are playing at the league’s third fastest pace this season, and are averaging three more field goal attempts per game compared to 2018-19. The extra attempts have lead to four more points per game on average, and they’ve already surpassed 120 points in six of 16 contests. 50% of their games have produced a total of at least 230 which makes the over/under in this game something to consider.

Shoot for the Over

As for Dallas, nine of its past 12 games have gone over the total, including three straight. This will be the Mavs’ first game with a total above 227, however the over has easily hit in each of their three highest total games this season.

The under in Houston games is surprisingly 10-6, but almost every time they’ve faced an offense that could match them bucket-for-bucket, the game has flown over the total. In games versus the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Wizards, all teams that average at least 113 points per game, the over has hit by a minimum of 8 points. Given both the Rockets and Mavs average 117.9 points per outing, this game could easily challenge 240 total points.