Golden Knights’ 2020 Stanley Cup Odds Fall from +800 to +1200; Time for Bettors to Buy Low?

• The Vegas Golden Knights have stumbled out of the gate to a 10-9-3 record
• Vegas has slid down the odds, currently sitting at +1500
• After back-to-back playoff appearances, are they a good buy-low candidate?

When you look at the first two seasons for the Vegas Golden Knights, it’s been an unparalleled success for the expansion team.

Two seasons, two playoff appearances, and a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.

But this year, they’re trudging along, just a game over .500.

Is this the fate they’re doomed to this season? Or is there another trip to the Cup final in this team?

2019/20 Stanley Cup Odds

Odds taken Nov. 18.

The Golden Knights were tops on the 2020 Stanley Cup odds among Western Conference favorites, sitting at +800 at the start of November.

Since then it was a sharp fall-off, as they slid to +1200 on the average odds. They’re as low as +1500 at some online betting sites, thanks in large part to a five-game losing streak where they went 0-4-1.

find 6 reasons to smile this Monday morning 😄 pic.twitter.com/5uUPFpqsFI

— x-Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 18, 2019

But things may not be as bad as they seem for the Golden Knights.

Vegas Golden Knights Righting the Ship

For Vegas, they’ve found themselves among the best when it comes to possession this season.

Both their Corsi and Fenwick percentages are in the top ten of the league. But they’ve struggled when it comes to giving up scoring chances.

It’s something that burned them especially frequently during that five-game slide.

Golden Knights Season Totals vs 0-4-1 Stretch

*NHL rank in (brackets)

**All stats from Natural Stattrick

The possession numbers didn’t really change over that five-game stretch.

Well this couldn't have gone any better.

-Dominant win
-Awesome defensively
-Eakin gets going
-Stone breaks his drought

The process has been there, finally, the results are matching.

— SinBin.vegas (@SinBinVegas) November 18, 2019

In the 16 games before that, Vegas averaged 29.5 chances for and 27 against per game. Over the next five games, the chances for bumped up slightly to 29.6, and against slide to 25.4. The biggest difference was in their PDO, which went from 1.002 to 0.933, the second-worst number in the league over that stretch.

Vegas Golden Knights Could Use More from Stastny

While William Karlsson, Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault have all been producing as expected, Vegas could use more from Paul Stastny.

The second-year Golden Knight isn’t playing up to last year’s (limited) standard.

Paul Stastny’s 2018 vs 2019

While the power play projection is up, everything else is down for Stastny. Part of the reason behind that is that Stastny is spending most of his time on the third line with Alex Tuch and Cody Glass.

Paul Stastny has his first point in nine games. And it was a beauty.

2-0 at 9:39.#VegasBorn

— Danny Webster (@DannyWebster21) November 18, 2019

But if he can start to elevate his wingers’ performances and align this year’s production with 2018/19’s, it’ll show in the win column for Vegas.

Vegas Golden Knights Should Start to Climb into Contention

As we pointed out ahead of their match-up with the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights typically struggle on their Eastern road swings. Unsurprisingly, that five-game losing streak featured three road games against Eastern Conference opponents.

The good news? Their next Eastern road trip features winnable games against the Rangers and Devils. Then it’s an eight-game trip when the calendar flips to January.

Ultimately the Golden Knights should be fine. There are still questions surrounding the Flames, Oilers, Canucks and Sharks, which should give them a shot to climb the standings.

From there they have the experience to get back to the Western Conference Final. And if you like their odds to navigate the West, they’re worth your attention at this point in the year.