New York Islanders (+870) Now Among Top-Four Favorites to Win 2020 Eastern Conference Title; Can NYI Keep This Up?

• The New York Islanders sit second in the Metropolitan Division
• A 13-game point streak has seen their odds to win the Eastern Conference shift
• Are the Islanders a good buy? Or is their success unsustainable

While the NHL season is just a month-and-a-half old, the New York Islanders have quickly become one of the best stories.

A year after losing their captain, and then Robin Lehner walking in free agency, most thought reality would finally hit them.

But Barry Trotz has again proven he’s one of the NHL’s best coaches.

The Islanders are flying, fresh off of a 10-game win streak and points in 13-straight.

They’ve got oddsmakers paying attention.

2019/20 Eastern Conference Odds

All odds taken Nov. 13

The Islanders have seen some of the most significant movement in their NHL Eastern Conference Odds.

A week into the season, they slipped to +1500. Now they’ve jumped up to +870,

That’s better than Washington (+990 to +580), but not as good as the Sabres (+3500 to +2200).

But there are some troubling trends and underlying numbers that could cause bettors to avoid their recent surge.

Analytics Don’t Add Up to Continued Success

New York averaged 1.7 goals-against over their 10-game win streak. They allowed more than two goals just once.

They were also outshot in seven of those games, giving up 30+ shots six times.

New York Islanders’ 10 Game Win Streak

*NHL Rank in brackets

**Statistics from Natural Stattrick

In terms of shots, there was a -27 difference between shots-for and against.

While the Islanders were fairly balanced when it came to scoring chances and high danger chances, their PDO was clicking at 1.067.

For those that aren’t familiar:

 …The sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. PDO is based on the theory that most teams will regress toward a sum of 100; often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is.

To be fair, they finished with a 1.019 PDO last year, which was second in the NHL to Tampa Bay. Although slight, expect some regression.

Will Lack of Scoring Doom New York Islanders?

While teams win in a variety of ways, you still have to score. And the Islanders can struggle with that.

In fact, here’s the East teams they’d outscored entering Wednesday: Ottawa, Detroit, Columbus and New Jersey. None have more than 16 points.

#Isles' Mathew Barzal fakes out a pair of #FlaPanthers, including Sergei Bobrovsky, and scores a slick back-hand goal 🙌 pic.twitter.com/6VAPI4K56m

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 9, 2019

The Islanders have 27. It also helps that they’ve allowed 12-fewer goals than the next best team in the Conference (Pittsburgh).

New York Islanders Scoring Projections

The fact they have Mathew Barzal is a miracle. Last year New York was one of 11 teams to not feature a 70-point player. Just three made the playoffs. Now they’ve got that covered.

https://twitter.com/KandrachSasha/status/1194378110315220992

But they also relied on Robin Lehner, who had a stellar season. At this point Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss are replicating that.

Greiss we can trust, as he teamed with Lehner. But Varlamov has had a volatile save percentage, and a GAA that’s been over 2.60 consistently since 2015/16.

Is he just a ticking time bomb?

New York Islanders Still a ‘Wait and See’ in East

While they pushed their way into the second round of the playoffs last year, that still looks like the ceiling for the Isles.

They’ll likely finish second or third in the Metro. That means the Penguins in the first round. And barring a 2019-like upset, facing the Capitals next.

https://twitter.com/boleary27/status/1193207590341222401

And then? The Lightning, Bruins, or Maple Leafs in the Conference Finals.

The Islanders are a structured team with good pieces. They can win a round. Or two.

But they won’t represent the East in the Stanley Cup Final.