In Spite of Workout, Kaepernick’s Odds of Signing with an NFL Team Set at +500; Bengals & Steelers Seen as Top Contenders

• Former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick will take part in a league-sponsored open workout Saturday in Atlanta
• Sportsbooks are offering +500 odds that an NFL team will sign Kaepernick before the end of the season
• Kaepernick hasn’t played an NFL game since 2016

Three years removed from his last game, Colin Kaepernick is getting a small helping hand from the NFL in his bid to return to the league. The NFL will hold an open workout for Kaepernick on Saturday in Atlanta.

But will any team decide that they have Kap space on their roster? Oddsmakers don’t think so.

Sportsbooks are offering +500 odds that an NFL team will sign Kaepernick before the end of the current season. The “no” side of the wager has -900 odds.

Odds Kaepernick Is Signed By An NFL Team During 2019-20 Season

Odds taken on November 13, 2019.

Kaepernick hasn’t played an NFL game since 2016. The further away he gets from participation, the longer the odds grow that he’ll once again participate as an NFL player.

In the summer, sportsbooks offered +300 odds that Kaepernick would sign with an NFL team this season.

Kaepernick’s Last Chance?

Kaepernick became a beacon of hope to some and a lightning rod for criticism to others when he began taking a knee during the Star Spangled Banner in protest of racial inequality, police brutality, and social injustice.

NFL clubs were informed today that a private workout will be held for Colin Kaepernick on Saturday in Atlanta. Session will include on-field work and an interview. All clubs are invited to attend, and video of both the workout and interview will be made available to clubs.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 12, 2019

Even though he took the San Francisco 49ers to the playoffs twice and to a Super Bowl 47 appearance, he’s been without a job for nearly three years. Kaepernick made his last NFL appearance on Jan. 1, 2017, in a 25-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

This All Seems Fishy

This entire episode smacks of an NFL publicity stunt. Kaepernick was given a two-hour window to accept the league’s offer. The NFL declined his request to hold the workout at a later date.

As Colin Kaepernick tweeted, the NFL didn't inform his reps of Saturday's workout in Atlanta until this morning. Kaepernick's reps asked for workout to be on a Tuesday, the day of most workouts, but NFL said it had to be this Saturday. He asked for a later Saturday; NFL said no.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 13, 2019

In February, the NFL settled a lawsuit filed by Kaepernick. The suit alleged collusion and that he’d been blacklisted by the NFL. Due to a confidentiality agreement, neither side would reveal the terms of the settlement.

I’m just getting word from my representatives that the NFL league office reached out to them about a workout in Atlanta on Saturday. I’ve been in shape and ready for this for 3 years, can’t wait to see the head coaches and GMs on Saturday.

— Colin Kaepernick (@Kaepernick7) November 13, 2019

That being the case, the league doesn’t appear to be in any danger of facing further legal action if Kaepernick never returns to the game. For the NFL to organize an open tryout of an unemployed player is an unprecedented action.

So why do it then?

Could it be that the marketing arm of the NFL has become aware that they’re losing the battle in the court of public opinion? Perhaps there’s more support for Kaepernick’s stand than there is resistance from those who misinterpreted his reason for kneeling as an anti-American flag protest?

.@getnickwright lays out the facts on Colin Kaepernick's timeline, beginning with his final year in San Francisco: pic.twitter.com/50Xk4fcU8s

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) November 13, 2019

This is an easy way for the league to appear to give Kaepernick a leg up while, potentially, continuing to shun him behind closed doors.

Where Might Kaepernick Go?

Let’s suppose for a moment that all of this is on the level. If Kaepernick is going to be legitimately assessed on Saturday and considered for a roster spot by NFL teams, which teams make the most sense as a destination for the QB?

The #Cowboys plan to attend the Colin Kaepernick workout and evaluate him as they would any other available player. They will determine need, fit and whether he’s a player worthy of further consideration.

— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) November 13, 2019

Books are asking the same question in a second prop wager with a trio of AFC North teams being the favorites. The Cincinnati Bengals are the +350 chalk, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers (+400) and Baltimore Ravens (+600).

Odds to Sign Colin Kaepernick

Odds taken on November 13, 2019.

Surprisingly, odds aren’t offered on the Miami Dolphins, the first NFL team to confirm that they’d be attending Kaepernick’s workout.

As well, there are no odds for the Detroit Lions, who may be without Matthew Stafford (broken bones in back) for quite some time. The Lions also acknowledged that they’d be in attendance.

#Lions Matt Patricia said Quinn and his staff will have someone at the Colin Kaepernick workout on Saturday, saying they always do their due diligence.

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) November 13, 2019

Among the group on the board, the Steelers do make a lot of sense. Pittsburgh is in playoff contention with Mason Rudolph under center in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to have a little veteran experience on hand behind Rudolph.

Of course, that’s assuming the whole thing isn’t a sham.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+400)

What’s The Bottom Line?

Let’s face it, 32 NFL teams had three years to work out Kaepernick. Only the Seahawks ever had him in for a visit.

I don't mean to criticize the teams willing to attend Colin Kaepernick's workout, but like, they know they could have worked him out at any point over the last three seasons, right?

— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) November 13, 2019

Is one Saturday in Atlanta going to change things? Or will it merely enable the NFL to say that they looked and weren’t interested?

Pick: No (-900)