St Louis Blues 2020 Stanley Cup Odds Move to +2500 After Tarasenko Injury
By Bryan Thiel in NHL Hockey
Updated: March 29, 2020 at 3:59 pm EDTPublished:
- The St Louis Blues announced that Vladimir Tarasenko will be out for at least five months
- St Louis had already seen a drop in their Stanley Cup odds before the announcement
- Do the Blues provide any value in the Stanley Cup race?
The St Louis Blues received some awful news on Monday. They announced that superstar forward Vladimir Tarasenko would miss at least the next five months.
Tarasenko was one of the key figures in the Blues’ run to the Stanley Cup last year with 11 goals and 17 points in 26 playoff games. Without him, their title defense gets a whole lot harder.
But do the Blues have enough firepower to stay in the race until Tarasenko can return?
2019/20 Stanley Cup Odds
| Team | Record | Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 5-3-2 | 12 | +900 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 8-5-0 | 16 | +1000 |
| Boston Bruins | 8-1-2 | 18 | +1200 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 8-2-1 | 17 | +1200 |
| Washington Capitals | 8-2-3 | 19 | +1200 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 9-2-2 | 20 | +1400 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 7-3-1 | 15 | +1600 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 7-3-1 | 15 | +1600 |
| New York Islanders | 8-3-0 | 16 | +1600 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 6-5-2 | 14 | +1600 |
| Nashville Predators | 7-3-1 | 15 | +1800 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 8-3-1 | 17 | +2000 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 7-5-0 | 14 | +2000 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 6-6-0 | 12 | +2000 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 7-6-0 | 14 | +2500 |
Odds taken October 28, 2019.
Earlier this regular season, the Blues slid in at +1500 odds. Since then there have been plenty of slight rises and falls in their 2020 Stanley Cup odds.
After ping-ponging back and forth from +1200 for a bit, the Blues fell back to +1500. And that’s where they were before things took a significant hit.
The Blues will be lucky to have Vladimir Tarasenko back at full strength by the playoffs.
2019-20 just got very interesting.
The defense is there, but can this team score enough over 5 months?
12 games in and shit just got real. #stlblues
— Dan Buffa (@buffa82) October 28, 2019
And honestly? It’d be tough to see the odds getting much better until there’s good news surrounding Tarasenko.
St Louis Blues Need a Timeline on Tarasenko
With the Blues announcing the injury needs a five-month recovery time, the best-case scenario would be an April return. That’s in time for a playoff push.
But that’s the best-case scenario.
BREAKING NEWS: Vladimir Tarasenko will require surgery on his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in five months. https://t.co/prtlxmmZze #stlblues
— St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) October 28, 2019
The keyword in that tweet? Re-evaluated. A worst-case scenario likely ends Tarasenko’s season.
Vladimir Tarasenko Last Five Seasons
| Season | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points | Offensive Point Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 77 | 37 | 36 | 73 | 8.5 |
| 2015/16 | 80 | 40 | 34 | 74 | 8.7 |
| 2016/17 | 82 | 39 | 36 | 75 | 8.4 |
| 2017/18 | 80 | 33 | 33 | 66 | 5.8 |
| 2018/19 | 76 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 6.2 |
From 2014-2017, Tarasenko was the Blues leading scorer. The last two seasons he finished second.
Tarasenko is not just the only Blue to score 30 goals in any of those seasons, but in some, he was the only one to score more than 25. That means there’s going to be a big hole when it comes to offense.
Who Can the St Louis Blues Rely on Offensively?
The obvious answers are Brayden Schenn, Ryan O’Reilly and Jaden Schwartz. David Perron sits second in team scoring, but at 31 and a career single-season high of 66 points, you know what you’re getting out of him.
The same can be said of Schenn, O’Reilly and Schwartz. Already playing key roles, there’s little these three can do to mitigate Vlad’s absence.
Career Numbers: Fabbri, Thomas and Blais
| Player | Age | Drafted | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas | 20 | 1st/20th/2017 | 77 | 10 | 24 | 34 |
| Sam Blais | 23 | 6th/176th/2014 | 53 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Robby Fabbri | 24 | 1st/21st/2014 | 164 | 32 | 41 | 73 |
This trio will have to raise their production with Tarasenko out, but the spotlight will be on Thomas. A first-round pick a few seasons ago, Thomas had 33 points in 70 games last year during his rookie season.
He’s had a slow start so far, and they’ll need more.
It's possible but I think they stick to their plan here and keep developing him. Word yesterday was he's playing well down there and being used in different roles. Maybe at some point they call him up but this is a chance for Robert Thomas to shine. #stlblues https://t.co/7Mx58tvCep
— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) October 28, 2019
For Blais and Fabbri, they’re slightly too old for true prospect status. Injuries have stunted Fabbri’s growth, however, so he may have a little more production in him. Blais is a relative unknown at this point.
Tarasenko Latest Issue Blues Must Overcome
While the Blues have to figure out what they’re doing offensively, there have been questions defensively too.
Entering Monday’s action, they had allowed the third-most goals against in the Western Conference. They’re also in the top 10 for scoring chances against, and top-five for high-danger chances against.
With questions at both ends of the ice, the Blues are not a good longshot play right now. In fact, we’d say give it at least a month to see if they sort out their scoring minus Tarasenko.
It’ll be a big adjustment and could make them a bubble team in the playoff picture very quickly.
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
