Avalanche, Despite Best NHL Record, Listed as +124 Underdogs vs Blues on October 21

• Colorado (7-0-1) is the only team without a regulation loss so far
• St. Louis has lost four games in a row, scoring three goals or fewer each time
• The Blues have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups

Amid a four-game homestand and in desperate need of a win, the St. Louis Blues host the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday. Colorado enters as the NHL’s top team, with 15 points in eight games and a plus-14 goal differential.

Having lost four in a row, the Blues might be in need of a matchup with the Avalanche — sounds weird, right? But St. Louis has had the upper hand in recent history, which might explain why they’re favored in the Blues vs. Avalanche odds.

* Odds taken 10/21/19

A Long Road Ahead

Colorado is currently on its longest road trip of the year, a six-game stretch that started in Washington, headed south to Florida and will ultimately end out west in Las Vegas. The Avalanche accrued their only loss of the season on this trip, against Pittsburgh, but only because of a fluky overtime goal.

And just like that, there were no more undefeated teams remaining! #NHL #Penguins #Avalanche pic.twitter.com/GrR0VMyKM5

— Justin Valentine 🎙️ (@JVAroundTheRing) October 17, 2019

Still, Colorado is 3-1 on the road this season and 4-0 against the spread. (You can find more data like this using our NHL ATS records.) It’s no wonder their +1.5 spread comes with extremely short -220 odds — they haven’t lost by more than a goal since April.

Stanley Cup Hangover?

Only about 10-percent of the season is complete, so it’s a little early to be making rash judgments on how teams have fared. The Blues are a prime example, as a team that went worst-to-first to win the Stanley Cup last season.

On Jan. 2, the St. Louis Blues were the worst team in the NHL, with oddsmakers pegging them as 60-1 longshots to take the title. https://t.co/yDZ56ikFmX

— JamesVGrimaldi (@JamesVGrimaldi) June 13, 2019

But it’s not a stretch to say the Blues have struggled this year, particularly in recent games. They’ve dropped four in a row, scoring three or fewer goals each time. As the moneyline favorite this year, they have just a 2-4 record.

They have no injuries and their shooting percentage (11.0) and save percentage (.909) are fairly normal. The results simply haven’t been there.

On sourit au Missouri. 😀

All smiles in Missouri.#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/LCFKVP3BbL

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) October 19, 2019

Head to Head Favors the Champs

Strangely enough, Colorado might be just the team St. Louis needs to see. The Blues have won four in a row and eight of 10 against the Avalanche, dating back to the end of the 2016-17 season. Six of those games went under the six-goal total, which is what Tuesday’s matchup is set at.

The division-leading #Avalanche pay a visit to the Enterprise Center for the first of five games against the #stlblues this season.
Coverage starts with Toyota Blues Live at 6:30. pic.twitter.com/EuVP4Gprrc

— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) October 21, 2019

It’s worth noting that both starters — Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer and St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington — should be in net after sitting out their most recent games for rest.

Decision Time

Recent head-to-head results aside, Colorado has been the much better team so far and bettors should take advantage of their underdog status against a struggling St. Louis team. Until they prove otherwise, the Avalanche are the right bet as a group that has already shown an ability to score in bunches and win on the road.

It doesn’t hurt to have MVP candidate Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge, either. He has 11 points on a season-opening eight-game point streak.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before…

NATHAN MACKINNON IN OT, BABY!#GoAvsGo https://t.co/Dte1msDyHm

— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) October 19, 2019

In terms of the Over/Under, it might be best to lean on the “Under” due to the Blues’ scoring difficulties. They’ve scored three or fewer goals in seven of eight games so far.

Pick: Colorado (+124); Under 6 (-102)