2019 Vienna Open Odds & Pick: Thiem Favored in Austria

• Matto Berrettini has won 21 of his last 28 matches
• Diego Schwartzman has lost three of his last four matches overall
• Thiem won the ATP 500 event in Beijing and made it to the quarters in Shanghai Masters.

The 2019 edition of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna is here but many of the ATP’s top players are not. The latest withdrawals include Nick Kyrgios and the tour’s top player of the moment, Daniil Medvedev. Who is now the best bet to win this wide-open tournament?

Odds to Win 2019 Vienna Open

*Odds taken 10/20/19. 

Thiem is Favored

Dominic Thiem is the No. 2 seed and typically, I’m not a huge fan of betting him on hard courts. He’s a clay-court specialist who thrives on the red surface but struggles across the others. However, he is playing in front of his home-nation fans in Austria, which should mean something.

He’s playing fairly well these days as he won the Beijing ATP 500 tournament a few weeks ago and reached the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters. He generally revived his season after he was listless in August with a virus that sapped his energy and affected him physically at the US Open.

He’s looking like he’s back to full health. If that’s the case, he could be a threat here.

Berrettini is Worth a Look

Matteo Berrettini is in the midst of a strong 2019 campaign and this looks like a spot where he could improve his standing. He’s won two titles so far and with none of the top players participating, he has an opening.

One thing to worry about Thiem is he has to play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the opening round, which should be a harder-than-expected opening match. If Thiem is out of the way, that just clears the path even more for Berrettini. Even if he has to face Thiem, he beat him in the quarters at Shanghai last week.

Berrettini made it to the semis at the US Open and won the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart right before that. That means he’s now won 21 of his last 28 matches. Look for him to carry momentum over to Vienna and be a real threat to win it.

Past Five Winners at Vienna Open

Avoid Schwartzman

Diego Schwartzman has had a good year, which was highlighted by winning a set over Rafael Nadal in the US Open quarters. He’s the sixth seed he’s not someone you want to be betting. Schwartzman struggles to get free points on his serve, which is not good news in an indoor tournament with a reasonably fast playing surface.

The other concern here is that he simply hasn’t been very good since he made his run at the US Open. He’s just 1-3 in his last four matches, failing to get past the second round of any of the three tournaments he’s played. I’d pass on him here.