Cincinnati Masters ATP Men’s Singles Final Odds & Pick: Medvedev vs Goffin

• This will be David Goffin’s first ever ATP Masters 1000 event final
• Daniil Medvedev is playing in his third straight hard court tournament final
• Medvedev’s 30 hard court wins are the most on the ATP Tour this season

In a bit of a stunning result, Novak Djokovic will not be playing in the Cincinnati Masters final on Sunday. Instead it will be No. 9 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 16 David Goffin. While Djokovic was the heavy favorite to win this event, we’re left to handicap a very different reality. Who is the best bet of the two finalists? Let’s take a closer look.

2019 Cincinnati Masters Final Odds

*Odds taken 08/17/19.

Medvedev Stuns Djokovic

In a result that’s quite hard to believe, Medvedev upset Djokovic on Saturday, ousting him 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. Djokovic was in the neighborhood of -300 to -350 to win this match as he hadn’t even lost a set en route to the semis. However, Medvedev was playing very well at this event too – also winning every set prior to Saturday – and he took care of business.

What an incredible night. So much respect for @DjokerNole! Excited about the final tomorrow ?? @ATP_Tour @CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/AD6whCAPWO

— Daniil Medvedev (@DaniilMedwed) August 18, 2019

The two had previously faced off twice but Djokovic held a 3-1 career head-to-head lead. The world no. 1 took the first set and looked to be in control. However, Medvedev took his game to another level in the second set and never looked back.

Goffin Ousts Gasquet to Reach Final

No. 16 seed David Goffin took care of business on Saturday when he turned aside veteran Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman had made an impressive run in the tournament but had to fight extra hard to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters on Friday, which left Gasquet tired for Saturday’s affair.

2018 #CincyTennis semi-finals: Retires in second set with injured shoulder.

2019 #CincyTennis semi-finals: Reaches first career Masters 1000 final!

Nice bounce-back @David__Goffin ? pic.twitter.com/XEpqhgpXvO

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 17, 2019

Goffin’s serve was on-point in this contest as Gaquet only managed to win 12 points off of him in 10 service games. As a result, Goffin will now head to his first ever ATP Masters 1000 final.

2019 Cincinnati Masters Key Stats

Medvedev the Best Bet in the Final

Although Medvedev is not a household name, he’s a solid hard-court player and is the better bet in this spot. While this is Goffin’s first Masters final, this is Medvedev’s second in eight days as he lost to Rafael Nadal in the title match of the Rogers Cup in Montreal last Sunday. The week before he lost in the final at the Citi Open in Washington.

Medvedev’s win over Djokovic was his 30th on the hardcourt on the season, the most on the tour. The two players have squared off just twice in their young careers, with each winning once. Medvedev won the hard court matchup at the 2019 Australian Open, while Goffin won the grass at Wimbledon.

My concern with Goffin is he’s just 22-18 on the year and this is not his best surface. He was only 10-7 on the hard courts last year, although he was 23-9 in 2017. He’s played nobody at this tournament, as his wins include Taylor Fritz, Guido Pella, Adrian Mannarino, had a walkover in the quarters and then beat a fatigued Gasquet.

Medvedev beat Djokovic, who was the favorite to win this event, so that tells us much more about his form than anything we’ve seen from Goffin. I expect Medvedev to earn the win in this spot.