Kamala Harris’ Democratic Nomination Odds Slip Ahead of Wednesday’s Debate; Biden Looks For Better Showing in Second Round

• The odds of Kamala Harris winning the 2020 Democratic Presidential got worse after Tuesday’s debate
• Harris dropped from +730 to +420 immediately after the debates. Today, she’s the frontrunner at +240
• Joe Biden has rebounded from +410 to +330 in the latest odds

There can be no debating the success that Kamala Harris enjoyed after the first round of Democratic President debates. She entered those debates last month in Miami sitting fifth overall to win the nomination at +730.

By the end of the debates, Harris was the third betting choice at +420. Today, the junior Senator from California is the chalk in the  Democratic nomination odds across the leading sportsbooks. Yet, after Tuesday night’s debate — which she wasn’t even a part of — her odds came back to earth somewhat. The main reason? Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both got shorter after their performances yesterday.

2020 Democratic Presidential Odds

*Odds taken on 07/31/19

WIll Harris regain her momentum with another strong showing on the debate stage on Wednesday night (July 31)? Can Joe Biden up his game compared to the first round of debates? Might Cory Booker make the some inroads in order to keep his candidacy among the contenders?

Harris Must Keep Crushing It

Harris delivered a strong, aggressive performance in the first series of debates. In doing so, her support went from 7% to 17%, on average, across a number of leading polling services.

Happy Kamala Harris Day 🎉 pic.twitter.com/ZsKutvnkx3

— Robert Garcia (@RobertGarcia) July 31, 2019

Debate bumps tend to be temporary, and there are signs that support for Harris is waning in some circles. As shown in the table above, her odds moved from +300 to +450 overnight on Tuesday. She’s now their co-third betting choice behind Warren and Biden, both at +300.

Below Average Joe

Biden, meanwhile, is on the rebound. Biden’s odds went from +410 on July 17 to +330 on July 23, and then all the way to +300 as of Tuesday night. Pollsters still show him as being at the head of this Democratic pack. But his advantage is declining.

Biden’s average polling percentage dropped from 32 to 26% following the first debates. His fundraising is unspectacular. His poll numbers in the early Primary stops of Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t great.

The former Vice President requires an impressive performance in Wednesday’s debate. Biden must display to voters that he brings more to the table than merely being the Barack Obama nostalgia candidate.

Booker Needs To Book It

The Democratic race for President is beginning to display separation. Like any distance race, it’s being divided into tiers. Harris, Biden, Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg have broken from the pack. They’re the top contenders.

Then there’s a second group of candidates desperately seeking to resonate and stay relevant. Cory Booker (+4000) falls into this category.

Since she's already gone up against @JoeBiden — any advice for @CoryBooker? @KamalaHarris answered: pic.twitter.com/WWPZx4okjd

— Stephanie Ramirez (@RamirezReports) July 29, 2019

The New Jersey Senator needs to make an impact on the debate floor. Otherwise, he’ll be soon forgotten.

Booker plans to attack Biden’s record on criminal justice. There’s a curious stat, though, that must puzzle both the Booker and Harris camps.

Currently, Biden polls much better with African-American voters than either of them.