2019 PFL 5 Odds & Picks

All Odds Taken 07/25/19.

Both Chris Wade and Akhmed Aliev are coming off of wins in the opening round, where Aliev got a first-round finish giving him six points, and Wade got a decision win, good for three points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gw_IvAzbcc

For Wade to win this fight he will have to bring it to the ground and try to grind out Aliev using his jiu-jitsu. Yet, I don’t see that happening as Aliev has solid takedown defense and has serious knockout power so a win by TKO in the second or third round is the pick.

Pick: Akhmed Aliev (-240)

Lance Palmer vs Luis Rafael Laurentino Odds

Fighter	PFL 5 Odds
Lance Palmer	-380
Luis Rafael Laurentino	+310

Lance Palmer is the reigning champion, but I think the odds should be much closer than this. Laurentino, in his last fight, knocked out Jeremy Kennedy in just 23 seconds. Many thought the Canadian had a shot to win it.

In this fight, Palmer is no doubt the better fighter, but their styles are fairly equal as both have solid jiu-jitsu. I think Palmer has the edge in the striking and wrestling department that he’ll be able to win by decision.

Pick: Lance Palmer (-380)

Rashid Magomedov vs Nate Andrews Odds

Fighter	Odds
Rashid Magomedov	-900
Nate Andrews	+600

Look, Rashid Magomedov is a good fighter, but so too is Nate Andrews, and there’s no way the line should be this high.

Anything can happen in a fight, and although I think Magomedov will win by decision, Andrews is a live dog. If he can get the fight to the ground, I think he could very well submit Magomedov.

Although the pick is Magomedov, there is no value on him at -900.

Pick: Rashid Magomedov (-900)

Alex Gilpin vs Freddy Assuncao Odds

Fighter	Odds
Alex Gilpin	-155
Freddy Assuncao	+135

This should be the best and most competitive fight on the card. Alex Gilpin was the runner-up last year while Freddy Assuncao is highly skill and making his PFL debut. They both have zero points as Gilpin is coming off of a loss to Palmer. The winner will need a finish to guarantee they advance, but could still advance with a decision.

They are evenly matched on the feet and on the ground, but I favor Gilpin as he has fought and beat a higher level of competition.

Pick: Alex Gilpin (-155)

Jeremy Kennedy vs Steven Siler Odds

Fighter	Odds
Jeremy Kennedy	-350
Steven Siler	+285

This was originally supposed to be the first fight of the night but has been shifted to the main card due to weight misses and a different bout order. The loser of this fight will not make the playoffs, but before the season started, both were expected to make it.

This fight is interesting as both are very well-rounded, and how Kennedy comes back after losing by knockout will be interesting. But, I like the Canadian to win this one, but think Siler has value at +285 as it is a close fight.

Pick: Jeremy Kennedy (-350)