Top-Ten 2020 Stanley Cup Favorites Gets a Shakeup; Stars, Predators’ Bump Out Capitals, Sharks

• Dallas signed Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry this offseason, while Nashville traded P.K. Subban and acquired Matt Duchene
• San Jose lost Pavelski and Gustav Nyquist
• Washington traded Andre Burakovsky, and swapped Matt Niskanen for Radko Gudas

The 2020 Stanley Cup futures have shifted around a bit since the end of free agency. Now that we know how the rosters will (mostly) look, the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators have received a bump while the Washington Capitals and San Jose Sharks have become longer shots.

Is the movement accurate for these four teams?

2020 Stanley Cup Odds

Stars Needed Offense, But Did They Get Enough?

There’s no question that one of the biggest shortcomings of the Dallas Stars last season was goal scoring. They finished second in the league in goals per game allowed and save percentage, but it was at the other end of the ice where they struggled. Dallas’ 2.55 goals per game were tied for the third-fewest.

The Stars made waves when they added Joe Pavelski, the former San Jose Sharks captain who scored 38 goals last season, and they also took a flier on former 50-goal scorer Corey Perry. Perrey is coming off an injury-plagued season and is now 34, but it’s possible he still boosts their scoring.

The challenge is the team also lost Mats Zuccarello and Jason Spezza. What they added should give them the depth they needed but if Perry struggles again, this unit is only marginally improved. Even so, with their elite goaltending and defense, their bump up the futures board makes sense.

Predators Trade Subban, Acquire Duchene, Turris

The Predators made waves when they salary dumped P.K. Subban and then used the money they saved to acquire Matt Duchene. On the surface, it looks like they moved a top-flight defenseman to acquire a premier scorer, but at a closer look, the move might actually be an overall improvement.

Subban is coming off a year where he had just 31 points and played 22:40 per game – his lowest marks in nine seasons. And even in a down year from him, the Preds still won the Central Division and had 100 points. The team is quite confident in the blue line after the play of Dante Fabbro last season.

If that’s truly the case, the Preds now gave a big boost to their offense while losing not as much as people think on defense. An offensive unit with Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson and Duchene will be among the best in the Western Conference. That’s why this unit gets a bump in the Stanley Cup futures.

Sharks Keep Karlsson But At What Cost?

The Sharks weren’t expected to keep star defenseman Erik Karlsson at first but after some maneuvering, they managed to pull it off. He was one of the top players last season in terms of Corsi (third-best mark among players who played at least 50 games), so he’s quite a valuable player, but the question is: was he worth the cost given the losses they suffered?

The Sharks ended up losing Pavelski, Gustav Nyquist and Joonas Donskoi as a result [of re-signing Karlsson to a lucrative contract].

The Sharks ended up losing Pavelski, Gustav Nyquist and Joonas Donskoi as a result. The Sharks were tied for second in terms of goals scored (3.52 per game) but lost their leading goal scorer (Pavelski), Donskoi’s 14 goals, and Nyquist, who is a young player on the rise.

Do they still have a lot of offense with Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Evander Kane and Logan Couture? Definitely but expect this offense to fall back to the middle of the pack now. And they still have some major goaltending concerns with Martin Jones. The team finished dead-last in save percentage last season.

Capitals Have Decent Offseason

The Capitals should be a Stanley Cup contender next season but they don’t appear to be among the top tier of teams. They’re high up in Tier 2. Their offseason moves weren’t sexy but Radko Gudas is good and re-signing Nick Jensen was key. They also brought back Carl Hagelin, then added Richard Panik and Garnet Hathaway.

But the team also lost 22-goal man Brett Connolly and in general, there are question marks about goaltender Braden Holtby. He did win the Vezina in 2016 but he had a save percentage of .911 last season and .907 the year before. This team can score but the shaky blue line/goaltending hurts their case.

What’s The Best Bet?

Of the teams mentioned, I like the Preds the most. The Sharks lost too much offense and have goaltending issues, the Caps have blue line and goaltending concerns, while the Stars offense feels like it’s a few bricks short of a load.

I’ll take a flier on the Preds as Duchene gives their offense a big boost while the blue line might be able to hold the fort without Subban.