Into the Final Four, Roberto Bautista-Agut’s Wimbledon Men’s Singles Odds Still Offering Value at 33-1

• Roberto Bautista-Agut was as high as +12500 to win Wimbledon earlier this year
• He’s never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon.
• He has a career record of 3-7 against Novak Djokovic, 0-9 against Roger Federer and 0-3 against Rafael Nadal.

While the women’s side of Wimbledon has been a complete crapshoot, the men’s side has been very by-the-book. The Big Three – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer – are in the semis and are joined by one longshot, Robert Bautista-Agut. Is he a good bet to win outright or is that a pipe dream?

Odds to Win 2019 Wimbledon

Bautista-Agut Has Made Impressive Run Into Semis

There’s no question that Bautista-Agut has had a remarkable run at Wimbledon. To put it in perspective, he was as high as +12500 odds to win Wimbledon on June 10 and +3700 before the quarters. Now he’s down to +3300 while everyone else has Wimbledon odds of +350 or shorter.

At the same time, he was in the one quarter that didn’t have any of the Big Three and he simply made the most out of it. He did upset No. 10 seed Karen Kachanov but that’s a player that’s never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon. Other than that, his wins aren’t that impressive (Benoit Paire, Guido Pella).

It’s been a nice fortnight for Bautista-Agut but his time is up. He’s never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon himself and he’s about to get cooked by Novak Djokovic or by someone else in the final.

Bautista-Agut Has Won Two Straight Against Djokovic

One interesting note is that Bautista-Agut has won two straight against No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic. However, he was just 1-7 in his career against him before that. They’ve never met on grass before but that figures to be an edge for Djokovic as Bautista-Agut is more of a clay-court specialist. He has 28 wins on clay in the last three years; he is just 11-5 on grass from 2016-2018.

The other issue here is that Djokovic is just playing so well right now. He’s fresh off a spanking of David Goffin in the quarters where Goffin only won a total of six games. Djokovic has lost just one set in the entire tournament. It’s hard to envision him losing here.

Bautista-Agut Has Never Defeated Federer or Nadal

In the rare chance that Bautista-Agut somehow edges Djokovic, he’s not going to have a very easy time of things in the finals either. That’s because he’s never beaten Federer (in nine career meetings) and he’s never beaten Nadal either (in three matches).

The three losses to Nadal all came on clay while the losses to Federer were on all surfaces. Bautista-Agut has only ever taken a set from him once, which came in the quarterfinals loss to him in Halle just a few weeks ago.

What’s the Best Bet?

Betting on Bautista-Agut to win is a pipe dream. This tournament is Djokovic’s to lose. He should have an easy time with Bautista-Agut in the semis and he’ll be happy to let Federer and Nadal duke it out. The survivor of that gauntlet should be tired enough for Djokovic to take advantage of. He’s the best bet here.