Odds to be Next UK Prime Minister: Boris Johnson Listed as Favorite

• Boris Johnson is favored to be the next Prime Minister of Britain
• Theresa May tendered her resignation last week
• Whoever wins will be the fourth UK PM since 2010

The race is on to replace Theresa May as the chief resident of 10 Downing Street, and the early odds favor Boris Johnson. May tendered her resignation last week. It takes effect June 7th.

Johnson is the former mayor of London and ex-British Foreign Secretary, serving from 2016-18. He is among eight who have already declared their candidacies to replace May as leader of Britain’s Conservative Party.

Odds to Be Next Prime Minister of Britain

*Odds taken 05/27/19

Whoever wins the race, they will be the fourth person to serve as Prime Minister of Britain since 2010, preceded by May (2016-19), David Cameron (2010-16), and Gordon Brown (2007-10).

Prior to the current mess, there was stability in the office. Between 1979-2007, Margaret Thatcher (1979-90), John Major (1990-97), and Tony Blair (1997-97) served as PM.

Johnson’s Trump-Like Qualities

The messy, out-of-control hair. The obsessive need to be forever in the spotlight and swimming amidst controversy. The incessant lying.

If you think you’ve caught Boris Johnson’s act before, we know exactly who it is you are thinking of.

https://twitter.com/Jon_Bowen/status/1132563387857199105

Not only do Johnson and US President Donald Trump consider each other friends, Johnson was actually born to British parents in New York City, Trump’s hometown. A dual British/US citizen, Johnson renounced his US citizenship in 2016, something to do with avoiding paying income tax.

Boris Johnson is undercooked version of Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/e4ABauN9Xa

— Fuad Alakbarov ⁠⁠ (@DrAlakbarov) May 24, 2019

Gee, that sounds familiar, too.

Not only does Johnson lean hard right politically, he’s also followed Trump’s lead and consulted with extreme right-wing policy maker Steve Bannon.

Can Boris Be Beaten?

Already, there are eight candidates who’ve put forth their names to replace May. The list could grow as high as 15 by the time the race formally gets underway.

Johnson may be the one with the groundswell of support within the grassroots membership of the party, but inside the House of Commons, it’s a different story.

Jeremy Hunt, who replaced Johnson as Foreign Secretary, has the backing of 27 MPs, eight more than Johnson. It was Hunt who convinced May to resign, aware that her latest Brexit proposal was going to fail just like her first two attempts to resolve the problem also fizzled.

When asked by @SkyData to choose from some of the favourites to become the next Tory leader & PM, most Brits say they don't want any of them

🔶 Boris Johnson 20%
🔶 Amber Rudd 8%
🔶 Michael Gove 8%
🔶 Sajid Javid 8%
🔶 Jeremy Hunt 7%

🔶None of these 49%https://t.co/NpKCMLwW3s

— Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) March 28, 2019

Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, and May’s former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab are all considered strong contenders.

How a Leader is Chosen

An in-house election will be held among all contenders, with balloting conducted only among Tory MPs. This process narrows the field down to two finalists.

A party-wide vote is held among those two finalists to select a new leader. Unless they can prevent Johnson from making the final round, he’s unlikely to be stopped. The election is his to win.

If Johnson survives the first ballot and reaches the final, his popularity among the party’s base will almost assuredly win him the runoff election.

The belief among pundits is that if Johnson survives the first ballot and reaches the final, his popularity among the party’s base will almost assuredly win him the runoff election.

It Could Be a Short Reign

The inability to find a suitable Brexit strategy was May’s downfall. With an end to this ongoing issue unlikely to be found within Parliament, the thinking is that this could lead to a snap election being called by the new Tory leader.

https://twitter.com/SocialistChris/status/1132541361486487552

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage of the Brexit Party would both be threats to win. The Brexit Party won the most seats (29) in the recent European Parliamentary election in Britain.