2019 Davis Cup Group II Odds & Picks

• Marius Copil, who is ranked 80th in the world, leads the Romanian team
• Thailand has beat the Philippines in each of the last two Davis Cups
• El Salvador is 1-7 in their last eight Davis Cup matches

As part of the new setup of Davis Cup, the main world group is no longer carried out in stages. That means the first Group II portion of the Davis Cup, which is coming up on April 5th and 6th, is for the teams which did not make the Davis Cup Finals this November in Madrid. Let’s take a closer look at the matchups and odds available and see if there’s any value on the board.

2019 Davis Cup Group II Odds

*Odds taken 04/04/19

Davis Cup New Format

The old and traditional Davis Cup had a quarterfinal in April, semifinals in September, and a two-nation final in late November. Now under the new Davis Cup Finals structure, 18 nations play in Madrid in one week, playing a series of competitions at the same site.

Getting ready for Davis Cup #go?? pic.twitter.com/OjHBy1iR0u

— Ze Team (@ZeTeamCan) February 1, 2019

That leaves the teams who didn’t qualify to play in Group II, which retains the more traditional two-nation Davis Cup tie structure. What’s on the line here is to remain in the higher group for the 2020 qualifying for the 2020 Davis Cup Finals. Winning these relegation ties prevents teams from falling out of the qualifying structure.

Some of the Group II ties are in September, but these three below are next weekend:

Romania vs Zimbabwe

The Romanians are the top seed in their Davis Cup group and are stocked with what we can consider a high-end player: Marius Copil. He made the final of the Basel tournament in Switzerland last autumn. That is a stronger presence and a more proven player than anyone Zimbabwe can possibly offer.

To the Nines!

????@rogerfederer claims his 9th #SwissIndoorsBasel and 99th career title by defeating Marius Copil 7-6(5) 6-4. pic.twitter.com/kXEJOvClGz

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 28, 2018

Romania generally has more depth beyond Copil but the ability to have one guy who can win the initial singles match and then the reverse singles match the next day is a huge hammer to wield in this matchup.

Also, take note that last year, Zimbabwe lost 4-1 to Poland but Romania pushed them in a hard-fought 3-2 loss. That’s at least something to go off of. Romania is a very solid pick to make as reliable as anything on the board in Group II competition.

Thailand vs the Philippines

Thailand and The Philippines have met in Davis Cup relegation ties the previous two years. Thailand scored 5-0 and 4-1 victories, so this time around, it is hard to expect how the outcome would be any different.

Opening ceremonies for the Semi Finals of the Davis Cup Asia Oceania Grp 2 between the Philippines & Thailand underway. @Sports5PH pic.twitter.com/BBEtkosfzo

— Renz Ongkiko (@RenzOngkiko) April 7, 2018

Thailand has generally produced better tennis players than the Philippines and is the No. 1 seed among the Group II teams in the Asia/Oceania Zone. There is little logical reason to think the Philippines will pull an upset. I would bet Thailand to take it 4-1.

El Salvador vs Peru

The Peruvians are the No. 1 seed in the South American region but like with many of the teams playing, there are big-name players. However, Peru’s collection of players – Duilio Berretta, Jorge Panta, and Juan Pablo Varillas plus Sergio Galdos in doubles – have all won Davis Cup rubbers (singles or doubles matches) in the past year.

#PeruFutures2017 Cuartos de final El chileno Tomas Barrios @tomasbarrios97 avanzó a semifinales del Perú F2, al derrotar al peruano Duilio Beretta por 6-2, 4-6 y 6-2. pic.twitter.com/BSPRfPouFp

— ATPeru (@ATPeru) December 21, 2017

Each of those players won matches in a 2018 South American qualifying tie against Bolivia. El Salvador is not much better than Bolivia. Much like Thailand relative to the Philippines, Peru has historically had better players than El Salvador.

Peru is better, playing at home, and is the top seed in its region.

One good example is Luis Horna, the last man to ever beat Roger Federer in the first round of a major tournament at Roland Garros in 2003. Peru is better, playing at home, and is the top seed in its region. This all lines up well for the Peruvians. I wouldn’t be surprised if they swept 5-0.