You Can Bet on Bryce Harper’s First Plate Appearance with Phillies: Is Home Run the Best Value?
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 9:21 pm EDTPublished:
- Bryce Harper will play his first game with the Philadelphia Phillies today (Mar. 28th)
- The Phillies face the Atlanta Braves and Julio Teheran at 3:05 PM ET
- Bettors can wager on what Harper will do in his first plate appearance with his new team
The Philadelphia Phillies will open the 2019 season in Atlanta today (Mar. 28th, 3:05 PM ET) and all eyes will be Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phils in the offseason.
Will Harper start his Philadelphia tenure with a bang?
Odds on Bryce Harper’s First Plate Appearance with the Phillies
| Result of Bryce Harper’s first plate appearance | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Single | +300 | 25% |
| Double | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Triple | +9000 | 1.1% |
| Home Run | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Walk | +300 | 25% |
| Intentional Walk | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Strikeout | +200 | 33.3% |
| Any Other Out | +175 | 36.4% |
The outright favorite is any out that’s not a strikeout. Strikeout is second, followed by a single and an unintentional walk in a two-way tie for third.
From there, the odds drop sharply to double and home run.
But note that the cumulative probability of all eight outcomes is142.2%! That’s going to make it very hard to find value. But let’s see if there’s any available based on Harper’s career stats and his history against Teheran.
Bryce Harper’s Career Stats
| Bryce Harper’s Career Stats | Career Total | Frequency Per PA |
|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 3,957 | N/A |
| Singles | 537 | 13.5% |
| Doubles | 183 | 4.6% |
| Triples | 18 | 0.5% |
| Home Runs | 184 | 4.7% |
| Walks (excluding IBBs) | 515 | 13.0% |
| Intentional Walks | 70 | 1.8% |
| Strikeouts | 834 | 21.1% |
The outcome that is closest to the implied probability in the prop is a single. But you’re still looking at an 11.5% discrepancy between how often Harper has singled during his career and how likely it’s deemed to be in the prop.
Does Harper’s history against Teheran provide any more clarity on the best play?
Bryce Harper’s Performance vs Teheran
| Bryce Harper vs Julio Teheran | Career Total | Frequency Per PA |
|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 52 | N/A |
| Singles | 7 | 13.5% |
| Doubles | 3 | 5.8% |
| Triples | 0 | 0.0% |
| Home Runs | 8 | 15.4% |
| Walks (excluding IBBs) | 9 | 17.3% |
| Intentional Walks | 2 | 3.9% |
| Strikeouts | 5 | 9.6% |
Harper has hammered Teheran in his career, slashing .450/.577/1.125 against Atlanta’s Opening Day starter in a not-insignificant 52 career plate appearances.
With eight jacks in 52 PAs, Harper has homered in 15.4% of his plate appearances against Teheran, which would actually put value on home run at +1000 (9.1% implied probability).
Given Harper’s Opening Day feats of strength (he’s the active leader in Opening Day home runs with five), there’s a little extra reason to have confidence in Bryce going yard in the bottom of the first inning.
Harper will also be batting third behind fellow newcomers Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura (who led the AL in singles last year and batted .304, overall). There’s a very good chance Harper will be hitting with a runner on in the bottom of the first, meaning Teheran will be working from the stretch. That gives a further edge to Harper.
Betting advice: While this bet is a stay-away for me, on the whole, if I had a free play, I’d split it between home run (+1000) and walk (+300).
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
