Brad Keselowski’s NASCAR Championship Odds Get Big Boost After STP 500 Win

• Keselowski has four top 3’s in his last five starts
• Kyle Busch has finished no worse than sixth in any race this season
• Martin Truex Jr. (+750) and Aric Almirola (+2500) offer value to win it all

Kyle Busch has had most of the spotlight to start the season, but Brad Keselowski has been incredible. With four top 3’s in his last five starts, he finds himself second in the standings. His average 2019 NASCAR Championship odds have gone from +700 on March 19th to +430 on March 27th across a number of top online sportsbooks. Is he a good bet at this point?

2019 Monster Energy Cup NASCAR Championship Odds

*Odds taken 03/28/19

Keselowski on Fire to Start Season

If you’re looking for flaws, look elsewhere. Since placing 12th at the crash-filled Daytona 500, Keselowski has been virtually perfect. He won at Atlanta, placed second in Las Vegas, 19th at Phoenix, finished third in California, and won at Martinsville.

YES BABY @keselowski pic.twitter.com/1eLMB9qehA

— ??? ???? ? (@twybrooke) March 24, 2019

Last week he was particularly dominant as Keselowski led for 446 of the 500 laps, which is quite impressive. However, as good as he’s been, one other driver has eclipsed his performance.

Busch is the Man to Beat

We’ll see how things progress, but as of right now, Busch is undoubtedly the man to beat. There’s no doubt that Keselowski’s numbers are impressive but he has a 19th and a 12th. Any driver would take those two outliers with everything else he’s done, but Busch has clearly performed better.

When P3 is your *worst* national series finish in three weeks, you know you’ve been hot.

Hear what @KyleBusch had to say on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/cMyGhXbjav

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 25, 2019

Through six races this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than sixth in any outing. He’s placed in the top 3 in five of his six outings and his lone “outlier” was a sixth-place result in Atlanta. Busch probably could have won the Daytona 500 (finished second) and has won two of the last three races overall (Phoenix and California).

Who is there Value With?

This NASCAR season is still young, but it looks like there’s a pack of elite drivers that are significantly better than the rest. That list would be headlined by Busch, followed by Keselowski, and then you’d have Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano in there too.

Kevin Harvick wins the NASCAR All-Star Race and comes away with the $1 million prize!pic.twitter.com/AuqQ9NFY1L

— Sporting News (@sportingnews) May 20, 2018

Those drivers have all performed really well, but when I take a look at the betting odds, I don’t see much value with them right now. The season is long and a lot can change – especially in the playoffs – so the bet is not worth the payout to me.

Instead, I’d rather take a flier with a couple of drivers who are performing well but are under the radar.

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Martin Truex Jr. and Clint Bowyer race off pit road, perhaps more than anything else so far today. pic.twitter.com/uTCKBsRLea

— Matthew Mayer (@MatthewMayerCBS) March 10, 2019

I would consider Martin Truex Jr. at +750 as this is a driver who won in 2017, finished second in 2018, and is doing well so far. While he’s currently eighth overall, he’s placed either second or eighth in each of his last five starts.

Martin Truex Jr. has placed either second or eighth in each of his last five starts.

Another driver I’d look at it is Aric Almirola. He’s off to the best start of his career and clearly has a good car. He’s placed ninth or better in five straight starts while leading for 69 laps. Do I think he wins it all in the end? Probably not, but the payout is there at +2500. He’s seventh in the standings and has an excellent shot.

This handshake has become a pre-race ritual when Alex is at the track. It brings me good luck. ? pic.twitter.com/QDhsa9BZi7

— Aric Almirola (@Aric_Almirola) March 26, 2019

Taking a look at those price points of Truex Jr. and Almirola, I see value there considering how they’ve performed and where they are in the standings. Busch and Keselowski don’t offer enough of a payout for me to risk a futures bet on them at this point.