JD Martinez’s AL MVP Odds Fading Approaching Opening Day; Is There Value?

• JD Martinez finished fourth in AL MVP voting last season
• Martinez was fifth in 2019 AL MVP odds on March 4th (+1600) and is now ninth (+2100)
• Are the long odds worth it for Martinez? Who’s the best bet in the AL race?

JD Martinez had a spectacular 2018. It was almost AL MVP worthy.

Martinez ultimately lost the award to teammate Mookie Betts, trailing Mike Trout, and Jose Ramirez too. Despite the fourth-place finish, Martinez was actually second among AL candidates in homers, first in RBI, and second in average.

Martinez opened the 2019 AL MVP Award odds in fifth place, but has since fallen off a bit, likely because of his slow spring. Do those long odds mean it’s time to pounce?

2019 American League MVP Odds

*Odds taken 03/21/19

The field is littered with familiar names and key players on teams expected to dominate.

Mike Trout is the best player of his generation. And he’s paid like it. It’d be weird if he wasn’t first. It’d be borderline disrespectful if the reigning AL MVP, Betts, was any lower than second too.

But the fact that oddsmakers have allowed JD’s slow spring to hurt him this much is odd. Especially with Francisco Lindor owning slightly better odds despite not even playing yet.

What Does Slow Spring Mean for Martinez?

JD Martinez has never really been a solid spring player. In fact, last spring is somewhat of an aberration with his career. For as many good springs he’s had over the last four seasons, he’s had some poor ones too.

JD Martinez Spring Training Stats

While some of those springs weren’t great, JD has recovered just fine. Martinez has hit at least 38 home runs and 100 RBI in three of the last four seasons. He’s also hit at least .280 in each of those years too.

How did #RedSox top prospect Michael Chavis spend his spring?

Learning everything he could from Mookie Betts and JD Martinez. pic.twitter.com/zv02AtxCbg

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) March 21, 2019

Barring injury, Martinez should be in for another high-end offensive season. Especially considering the lineup he’s in.

He just may have trouble getting over the Mooke Betts bump.

Will Betts Stand in Martinez’s Way for AL MVP?

The scary thing about Betts, is that many believe the best is yet to come from him.

After a 30-30 season where he led the league in batting average and slugging percentage? Those are lofty expectations.

Mookie Betts vs. Mike Trout: 2018 OPS title edition.

Final score:
Trout- 1.088
Mookie- 1.078 pic.twitter.com/7tN3PNYHlm

— Tucker Boynton (@Tucker_TnL) March 19, 2019

Both Betts and Martinez are getting lots of love from Baseball Reference’s projections too.

Projected 2019 Season: Mookie Betts vs JD Martinez

Who Else is a Candidate for AL MVP?

In terms of anyone at better than +1000, Alex Bregman is the only one we’d really touch. Many see him as a prime breakout candidate and he’s seen a gradual upswing throughout his career.

Beyond that? Staying in Boston could be worth it if Xander Bogaerts (+5200) or Andrew Benintendi (+4800) pace the Red Sox attack.

In the top 18 players in the American League MVP voting, there were three Red Sox players (Mookie Betts 1, JD Martinez 4, Xander Bogaerts 13) and one Yankee player (Aaron Judge 12). pic.twitter.com/di0gEH8nRM

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) November 16, 2018

We like the tried and true nature of Martinez’s career though. He’s proven to be a consistent offensive performer, and he loves hitting in Boston.

At +2100, Martinez is a worthy investment.