Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers are one of three #1 seeds from the all-powerful ACC. Can they make a run to the Final Four just one year after falling to #16 UMBC in the first round? Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire.
You can wager on how many #1 seeds will make the NCAA Men’s Final Four
On average, 1.7 #1 seeds make the Final Four each NCAA Tournament
What’s the best bet here?
The cream usually rises to the top at the NCAA Tournament. There have been exceptions, most notably Virginia last year, but #1 seeds typically make deep runs in March Madness and often crack the Final Four.
On This Date: A year ago, UMBC became the first No. 16 seed in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament to defeat a No. 1 seed after defeating Virginia 74-54. pic.twitter.com/ZZHdacQyPl
On average, 1.7 #1 seeds make the Final Four each year and you can wager on exactly how many teams will make it to Minneapolis this April.
Exact Number of #1 Seeds in 2019 NCAA Final Four
How many #1 seeds will make 2019 Final Four?
Odds
Two
+150
One
+225
Three
+250
Zero
+1000
Four
+2000
Two #1 seeds to advance is the current favorite at some sportsbooks, while other sportsbooks posted this prop prior to selection Sunday and made just a single #1 seed in the Final Four a slight favorite.
Historical Trends for #1 Seeds in the Final Four
Just once since the tournament expanded in 1985 have all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (2008)(, while there have been two instances where zero #1 seeds have made it.
One #1 seed has made the Final Four 14 times, while two have made it 13 times, and there have been four years where three #1 seeds have made it, most recently in 2015.
Exactly two #1 seeds have made the Final Four in back-to-back years, but from 2010-2016, only one #1 seed advanced in five of the seven tournaments.
Something to Consider
Six of the past seven NCAA Champions have been ranked top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency at Kenpom.com. This year, four teams not only meet that criteria, but are inside the top-10 in both key categories. Three of them are #1 seeds: No. 1 Virginia, No. 1 Duke, No.1 North Carolina, and No. 2 Michigan State.
While not all four can advance to Minnesota, since Duke and Michigan State are in the same region, there’s a strong possibility that the winner will emerge from this group and then it becomes a question of how many you think can make the Final Four and whether or not Gonzaga can join them.
Trust the ACC
The ACC is the most dominant conference in the country, and this year’s trio of ACC #1 seeds have a significant advantage over the rest of the teams in their respective regions.
Of the three, only Virginia is in a region with more than one of KenPom’s top-10 teams, and those two teams (No. 2 Tennessee and No. 3 Purdue) just happen to be programs the Cavaliers matchup very well against.
— Virginia Men’s Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 17, 2019
Sure, one or two #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four more frequently, but this year the gap in talent feels more significant. I’m leery of relying on any team outside of the ACC. The +250 price tag feels a bit short, but this is the year where #1 seeds flex some serious muscle on the field.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
