Texas Tech Bumps Kansas Out of Top 10 March Madness Favorites

• The Kansas Jayhawks streak of consecutive regular season Big 12 titles will end at 14 this year
• The Jayhawks are just 7-6 in their last 13 games
• The Texas Tech Red Raiders have the top defense in the nation, according to the KenPom ratings

The Kansas Jayhawks had won the Big 12 regular season title 14 years in a row and were expected to extend that streak this season. However, the 2018-19 hasn’t gone as planned and now it’s left bettors to wonder who from the Big 12 is a good bet to win March Madness.

Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Tournament

Jayhawks Just Aren’t Very Good…Right Now

The Jayhawks have won 22 of their 30 games so far and are ranked in the Top 25. Make no mistakes about it: a lot of schools would kill to be in that position. At the same time, this program – given the standard they’ve set under head coach Bill Self – is having a bad year.

There’s the absence of Lagerald Vick, who averaged 14.1 points and 4.0 rebounds per game before leaving the team to tend to personal matters. And there’s the injury to center Udoka Azubuike and the suspension of Silvio De Sousa.

Stanford was ready to upset No. 2 Kansas, but Lagerald Vick had other plans. pic.twitter.com/s1TQlg8s79

— Bleacher Report CBB (@br_CBB) December 2, 2018

Nobody would ever doubt the talent on this team – even after subtracting those players – but the metrics are particularly good.

The one saving grace for the Jayhawks is that they’ve played the toughest schedule in the country. That counts for a lot and can partly explain why they’ve fallen short of expectations.

Texas Tech Is Now Favored

With the Jayhawks tumbling down the rankings, the Red Raiders are the team that’s now with the shortest odds to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament when you look at the averages across all sportsbooks. Even so, they’re still not getting much love from the oddsmakers, media or bettors as being a serious threat to cut down the nets.

Count ‘em.

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— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) March 7, 2019

The issue is that they’re not sexy. They’re the best defensive team in the country, according to the KenPom ratings, but their offense lags behind. They have games where they beat Kansas by 29 and also barely survived Oklahoma State in overtime by four.

Against elite teams this season, their offense has had a tendency of disappearing as they scored 58 versus Duke, 45 at Kansas State and 63 at Kansas.

What About Kansas State?

The Big 12 regular season title is down to Texas Tech and Kansas State. The Wildcats, though, are ranked below Texas Tech (No. 8) and Kansas (No. 13) as they’re at No. 18 at the moment. They also have longer odds to win the NCAA Tournament, so that gives you an indication that standings don’t mean everything.

“K-State is a great place to be, and I’m proud to be a Wildcat.” – Barry Brown, Jr. #KStateMBB #EMAW pic.twitter.com/79n2t5Nflv

— K-State Men’s Basketball (@KStateMBB) March 8, 2019

In my view, the Wildcats are just a slightly worse version of the Red Raiders: they play excellent defense, are so-so on offense and have played a weak schedule. The Wildcats offensive rating is 106^th while their defense is sixth. Their Strength of Schedule rating is 32^nd. A road loss at Tulsa, getting blown out at home to Texas and tight home wins over Southern Miss and Vanderbilt show you the downside with this team.

So Who Is The Best Bet?

If we’re looking at teams to win the NCAA Tournament, I wouldn’t bet on any from the Big 12. If we’re looking at which Big 12 team will probably go furthest in the NCAA Tournament, I’d watch the Big 12 Tournament and then make a determination.

If a team like Kansas or Iowa State gets it together, they would be my bets to go furthest. Kansas is uber-talented and has played an extremely difficult schedule while Iowa State – for all of their recent problems – have quality guard play, elite talent, experience, depth and a coach who can bring it all together.

Double-double No. 17 of the season ✔️

Have a night, @KUHoops‘ Dedric Lawson ? pic.twitter.com/DvnkXkzjOF

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 26, 2019

If neither perform well, I’d save my money on futures and look for good spots to bet against Texas Tech and Kansas State, who look like they could be ripe for an upset on the first weekend.