Belmont Favored Over Murray State in Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

• Belmont’s Dylan Windler is the only player in the country averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
• Murray State’s Ja Morant, the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year, is averaging 24.1 points and 10.3 assists.
• No team has won this conference tournament in back-to-back years since 1998-99. Murray State won last season.

The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament will get underway on Wednesday in what should be one of the more interesting mid-major tournaments.

Belmont is favored to win it all, but Murray State will be the team many are cheering for as they’d like to see future top-five NBA draft pick Ja Morant take his rising star to March Madness.

Odds to Win 2019 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

*Odds taken on 03/05/19

Is OVC Tournament a Two-Horse Race?

The first thing you’ll want to note if you’re betting these futures is that this tournament looks like a two-horse race. Belmont is on the board at -130 and Murray State is posted at +130. Everyone else is at +600 or worse.

Jacksonville State is that third team at +600 and those odds are generous as other sportsbooks have them at +900 or longer.

Ohio Valley Conference. All games at Evansville. #log5 pic.twitter.com/j1Wyt9qaWf

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 4, 2019

It’s worth noting that no team has won this conference tournament in back-to-back seasons since 1998-99. Murray State won last year, so keep that in mind. Five different schools have won this tournament over the last five years.

Belmont Is Red-Hot Right Now

Belmont is the more complete and balanced of the two teams overall. What might be more important is the momentum they carry going into this event. They’ve won 13 in a row, which ties them for the fourth-longest active winning streak in the country.

While Ja Morant gets all of the attention, the Bruins’ Dylan Windler is an NBA-caliber prospect for Belmont. He’s the only player in the country averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. His efficiency rating is off the charts at 126.5, which is only behind Duke’s Zion Williamson and Furman’s Matt Rafferty.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Belmont Basketball (@BelmontMBB) – Dylan Windler
Dylan had a Monster week in the OVC take a look! pic.twitter.com/Qs7MahhI7V

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) January 22, 2018

Overall, this team doesn’t really have any notable weaknesses. They’re No. 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the KenPom ratings.

More importantly, they’ve already topped Murray State once this season with a 79-66 win on the road. They clamped down on Ja Morant in that game as he only shot 5-of-19 from the field. They should be able to do it again.

Murray State Has Momentum

Belmont has their impressive 13-game winning streak but Murray State rolls in having won nine in a row. While Belmont has Windler, the Racers have Ja Morant, who is a sure-fire lottery pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. This guy is a triple-double threat every night and the last time he faced Belmont, 42 NBA scouts were in attendance.

After living in the shadow of Zion Williamson on the AAU Circuit in HS, Ja Morant will likely join him as a top 5 pick in this year’s draft.

His highlights are something else ? pic.twitter.com/6lT17R3acB

— Prep Hoops (@PrepHoops) February 25, 2019

Morant is the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year, averaging 24.1 points and 10.3 assists. He’s also a contender for many of the other major awards. The challenge is that I don’t think he can do it all alone. He’ll carry this team to the championship game but I don’t like Murray State’s chances of winning two years in a row.

Beware of Jacksonville State

My bet for this tournament isn’t going to be a big one. The safe bet is Belmont, but as odds-on chalk, I’m not that interested. I do think they’ll probably win it as teams rarely repeat in this conference, which is bad news for Murray State. And Belmont beat them on the road already, so they’re not worried about a rematch.

Congratulations, Jason Burnell, on being named First Team All-Ohio Valley Conference!#FearTheBeak #StayCocky #JSUStrong pic.twitter.com/a8nlaK1d1X

— Jacksonville State Basketball (@JSU_MBB) March 5, 2019

However, I would sprinkle a little bit on Jacksonville State. Not only have the Jaguars won their last seven games, they are also a combined 3-0 against both Belmont and Murray State.

SBD’s NCAA conference tournament coverage:

• Lipscomb Odds-On Favorite to Win NCAAM Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
• Colgate Odds-On Favorite to Win Patriot League Tournament
• 2019 Horizon League Tournament Odds: Northern Kentucky Favored
• 2019 Big South Tournament Odds: Radford Favored
• 2019 MAAC Tournament Odds: Iona & Rider Listed as Co-Favorites
• 2019 Colonial Conference Tournament Odds: Hofstra Given Edge Over Northeastern
• Saint Francis Red Flash Favored to Win 2019 Northeast Conference Tournament