NASCAR USA Today 301 Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks (June 23)
- NASCAR USA Today 301 takes place this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- Christopher Bell leads the betting odds, followed closely by teammate Martin Truex Jr.
- Below, find NASCAR USA Today 301 predictions, odds, and longshot picks
NASCAR’s top drivers will return to “The Magic Mile” at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday, June 23 for the 2024 USA Today 301. The 301-lap, 318-mile race is set for a 2:30 p.m. ET green flag and will be televised live on USA Network.
Christopher Bell of Joe Gibbs Racing enters as the betting favorite at +450 odds after winning at New Hampshire in 2022. Martin Truex Jr., Bell’s JGR teammate, is the second choice at +500 as he looks for his first victory of the season.
Here are the latest USA Today 301 odds from BetMGM:
NASCAR USA Today 301 Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | +450 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +500 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +700 |
| Joey Logano | +800 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2200 |
Bell’s implied probability of winning based on his +450 odds is 18.2%, meaning the oddsmakers give the 27-year-old just under a 1-in-5 chance of reaching victory lane on Sunday.
But he’ll have to fend off not just Truex but a star-studded field that includes Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, who have combined to win six races so far in 2024.
Odds as of June 22, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out the available sportsbook promo codes for NASCAR racing.
NASCAR New Hampshire Predictions
Despite coming in as the favorite, Bell hasn’t won since his victory in Charlotte back in May, which snapped a nine-race winless drought to open the season. While he has performed well with three straight top-10s, it’s tough to support him at a high price when his own teammate has had more success at this track.
Instead, Truex is the best bet on the board at +500 odds. The 42-year-old veteran leads all active drivers with 426 laps led across his last two starts at New Hampshire, including a win in 2023 when he led 254 of 301 laps from the pole.
He has mastered this 1.058-mile oval and is overdue for his first win in his 19th and final full-time Cup Series season before retirement.
Martin Truex, Jr. hasn't started to schedule races for 2025, but says New Hampshire is a track he'd like to return to.
Truex says he and Denny Hamlin chatted a couple times this week after Hamlin expressed interest in fielding another 23XI entry for him in the Daytona 500. pic.twitter.com/QSdgUcVUmh
— Joseph Srigley (@joe_srigley) June 22, 2024
Hamlin also warrants a look at +600 as he aims for his fourth career win at New Hampshire and first since 2017. The three-time Daytona 500 winner boasts the best average finish (9.4) of any active driver at this track and has a remarkable 12 straight top-15 finishes here dating back to 2012.
He ranks second in laps led (972) in 28 career starts and has been crushing on short, flat tracks so far this season.
Ultimately, I expect one of those three – and, more broadly, one of the eight Toyota drivers – to take the checkered flag on Sunday. Toyota is priced at even money (+100) to win this race and has seen its drivers finish first or second in 11 of the last 12 years at New Hampshire.
Joe Gibbs Racing, specifically, has won five of the last seven races here and a record 13 times overall. That level of manufacturer dominance is impossible to ignore.
Winner Picks:
- Martin Truex Jr. (+500)
- Toyota (+100)
NASCAR 301 Longshots
If you’re looking for a live long shot, Tyler Reddick (+2200) is worth a flier for his first win with 23XI Racing. The 27-year-old ranks in the top five among active drivers in average starting position (10th) and finishing position (12.5) through four career starts at New Hampshire.
Reddick’s aggressive driving style is conducive to chaos, which we could see Sunday with potential rain and tire wear on a track that hasn’t been paved in nearly 20 years. He has also fared well on short tracks this year, finishing seventh at Martinsville and fourth at Gateway.
Had a few surprise visitors today. ✍🏻🛴 pic.twitter.com/rKSmYRliK3
— Tyler Reddick (@TylerReddick) June 22, 2024
Chase Elliott is dealing at shorter +1400 odds but could be worth a bet, too, after finishing second in this race in 2022. The 2020 Cup Series champion quietly leads the circuit in points (591) after logging seven top-five finishes already this year, including three in his last six starts.
Elliott has been the best qualifier in 10 career races at New Hampshire and is long overdue for his first win at this track.
Don’t sleep on Bubba Wallace (+4500), either, after he finished third and eighth in his last two starts at “The Magic Mile.” The No. 23 Toyota was fast in practice and has the benefit of his 23XI Racing teammate in Reddick. He will provide some tips for the 29-year-old still seeking his first win of 2024.
If you’re betting Wallace, consider taking him at +220 for a top-10 instead of the outright win.
NASCAR Longshot Picks:
- Tyler Reddick to Win (+2200)
- Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish (+220)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
