Biden’s Election Odds Slipping During Election Week; Should Democrats Be Getting Nervous
- Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s odds to win next week’s presidential election have slipped in the last few days from -207 to -191
- President Trump’s odds have shortened a bit over that same time frame, moving from +170 to +163
- Read below for analysis on the current 2020 US Presidential Election odds
Former Vice President Joe Biden has seen his odds to win next week’s presidential election slip over the past few days. The Democratic front-runner has gone from a -221 favorite just over two weeks ago — the shortest by either candidate during the campaign — and -207 just three days ago to -191 six days prior to Election Day.
Meantime, President Trump has seen his odds to win a second term shorten slightly, moving from +170 to +163 since Oct. 25.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds on Oct. 25 | Odds on Oct. 26 | Odds on Oct. 28 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +170 | +167 | +163 |
| Joe Biden | -207 | -202 | -191 |
What’s causing the slight dip in favorite-status for Biden? With roughly 70 million ballots already cast, polls released Wednesday by The Washington Post and ABC News showed Trump trailing Biden by 17 points in Wisconsin and seven in Michigan, both key battleground states that will be among a handful to decide the Electoral College.
The 2020 election odds show Biden’s steady rise to overwhelming favorite in early October — then, a curious leveling off over the last couple weeks.
Should Biden and Democratic voters be nervous about the recent change? Is Trump on the verge of pulling off a second straight upset? More importantly for bettors, does Biden have a 66% chance to win, which he would need to justify a wager at -191?
SCOTUS Helps Trump?
The Supreme Court issued a decision earlier this week barring the counting of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin that arrive after Election Day.
https://twitter.com/robertjdenault/status/1320873957076144130
Justice Kavanaugh, a Trump appointee, penned a concurring opinion in the 5-3 decision which seemed to give credence to President Trump’s stance that any results counted after Nov. 3 could be considered fraudulent. But this is an assertion unsupported by the history of elections in the United States.
It’s a rationale so radical that the court even refused to adopt it in the case of Bush v. Gore in 2000. Of course, Kavanaugh — along with newest Trump appointee Amy Coney Barrett and Chief Justice John Roberts — worked on the Florida recount case for Bush. It’s a victory not lost on the president.
Ultimately, this decision could be a factor in Biden’s dwindling numbers and is concerning for Democrats.
Out in the Cold
But when you have at least seven people hospitalized following a President Trump campaign rally in Omaha, Nebraska Tuesday night, you wonder how Biden is slipping.
Thousands of people — many senior citizens — were left stranded for hours in freezing temperatures at an airport, waiting for shuttle buses to take them back to their cars.
Meanwhile, the president left in a cozy Air Force One for his next stop in Arizona Wednesday.
The whole spectacle was incredibly bad optics for a Trump campaign that is publicly confident, yet playing defense.
Polls Predict Landslide
Political experts are reticent to hand the 2020 election to Biden due to what happened in 2016.
But with the record number of early votes cast — more than half of the total cast four years ago — and Democrats historically voting early more often than Republicans, it’s clear Biden has a huge early lead. The question is can Trump voters overcome what could be an insurmountable lead on Nov. 3? It would seem not.
The RealClearPolitics national polling average with 6 days left in presidential elections (final results):
2004: Bush +2.0 (Bush +2.4)
2008: Obama +6.0 (Obama +7.3)
2012: Exact Tie (Obama +3.9)
2016: Clinton +1.7 (Clinton +2.1)
2020: Biden +7.2 (TBD)Biden outpacing everyone…
— The Darkest Timeline Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 28, 2020
A lot of things would have to go right for President Trump to win the Electoral vote again. A lot. Winning Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) won’t be enough. The president would be forced to look at places like Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado and Nevada. And the vast majority of all of those states have Biden with a decent, and in some cases, large lead.
That brings us back to our original question. Does Biden have more than a two-thirds chance of winning? In my opinion, he does.
When you factor in the historic early voting numbers and the extreme leads for Biden in places the president carried in 2016, you have a situation that is beyond out-of-reach for a president seeking a second term.
Bet on Biden with confidence in this spot.
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
