Leafs vs Bruins Game 5 Prediction, Odds & Player Props (Apr. 30)

• The Boston Bruins are favored to eliminate the Maple Leafs in Game 5
• NHL player props favor David Pastrnak and William Nylander to make an impact
• Read below for Leafs vs Bruins Game 5 prediction, odds and player props

The Toronto Maple Leafs will aim to stave off elimination when they visit the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night in Game 5. Puck drop is set for 8:00pm ET, with ESPN and CBC carrying the national broadcasts.

The latest Leafs vs Bruins odds favor Boston to eliminate the Leafs at home, with David Pastrnak and William Nylander sporting the best odds to get on the scoresheet. Auston Matthews is questionable to play due to sickness.

Let’s get into our Leafs vs Bruins Game 5 prediction, as we analyze the odds and provide player props.

Leafs vs Bruins Game 5 Odds

Boston is the -150 home favorite in the Game 5 NHL Playoff odds, giving them 60% implied win probability. The over/under is offered at 5.5.

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Leafs on Brink of Elimination

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the cusp of yet another early first-round playoff exit after falling behind 3-1 in their first-round series with Boston. Toronto has dropped two straight games, including an ugly 3-1 loss at home in Game 4.

William Nylander returned from an undisclosed injury in Game 4; however, Auston Matthews left the contest in the third period due to sickness. The latest Auston Matthews injury update is that the star forward is questionable to play in Game 5.

No determination yet on Auston Matthews’ status for Game 5. It’ll be the doctor’s call.

Keefe declined to answer if there is something beyond just an illness hindering him.

— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) April 30, 2024

Matthews didn’t skate on Monday, but he flew with the team to Boston on what the team deemed to be another medical day. Having Matthews in the lineup Tuesday would be a big boost, as he led the entire league in goals during the regular season (69).

Toronto is making a change in the goalie crease for Game 5, as Joseph Woll is getting the nod over the struggling Ilya Samsonov. The 25-year-old Woll appeared in five postseason games last spring, posting a solid .919 save percentage and 2.23 GAA.

Bruins Aim to Avoid Round 1 Collapse

The Bruins will look to avoid blowing a 3-1 series lead in the first round for the second straight year. Last season, Boston had taken a 3-1 lead over the Florida Panthers before losing three consecutive games en route to elimination.

Ironically, if the Bruins win this series, they will play the Panthers in the NHL Playoff Bracket. Boston has won two straight games over the Leafs, including Game 5, in which Brad Marchand potted the game-winner, and goalie Jeremy Swayman made 24 saves on 25 shots.

Boston has outscored Toronto 14-7 in the playoffs, with Swayman arguably being the team’s MVP so far, although Marchand certainly has a case, too. Swayman has stymied the Leafs this postseason, posting a .956 save percentage in his three starts.

While bettors may be inclined to bet on a second consecutive Bruins’ playoff collapse, blowing series leads isn’t the norm for Boston. Prior to last year, the Bruins had lost just two of 23 all-time series when leading 3-1 in a best-of-seven.

Bruins vs Leafs Player Props

NHL player props are available for Bruins vs Leafs Game 5, with David Pastrnak sporting the best odds to find twine at +115.

Odds as of Apr. 30, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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When it comes to the player props market, we like targeting William Nylander. Willy Styles attempted eight shots on goal in Game 4 while leading all Toronto forwards in ice time (22:32). He’ll be relied on heavily once again in Game 5, especially if Auston Matthews is out.

In games in which he logged over 20 minutes of ice time this season, Nylander averaged over four shots on goal per game. Going back to last postseason, Nylander was arguably the Leafs’ most reliable performer, averaging 4.27 shots on goal in two rounds.

Nylander is one of the freshest and hungriest Maple Leafs, so taking his over of 3.5 shots on goal is a great bet. We’re also putting down a quarter unit on him to score at +150 odds.

Leafs vs Bruins Game 5 Prediction

We will likely see a very desperate Leafs team tonight, but will the team’s desperation be enough to send this series back to Toronto? Last season’s playoff collapse is fresh in many of the Bruins’ players’ minds, and we expect them to play with a similar type of urgency on Tuesday night.

Although we like the chance to Woll in the goalie crease, Toronto’s struggles in Boston are impossible to ignore. Toronto has just one win in their last six trips to Boston and only one victory in their previous eight games with the B’s overall.

We’re backing Boston to win the series, with the expectation that Swayman will start in goal once again. William Nylander’s shots on goal are a great way to play the Maple Leafs’ side if you aren’t confident the team can extend the series.

TOR vs BOS Game 5 Picks:

• Boston Bruins ML (-150)
• William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105)