Patriots vs Bills Odds, Lines, and Spread

• The New England Patriots (2-4) face the Buffalo Bills (5-2) on Sunday at New Era Field
• The Patriots will be without wide receivers Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry who are both out with knee injuries
• Here are the odds, line movement, and betting advice for the AFC East matchup

Ready for some AFC East action? The New England Patriots travel to New Era Field to take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday at 1pm ET. It’s Buffalo in November and the weather will look like it. Expect breezy conditions with winds gusting up to 19 mph.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

*odds taken Oct. 31st from Draft Kings

The Bills are 4-point favorites and given the state of these two teams it feels like the number should be higher. Despite a rush of public money on Buffalo the line has not moved. Let’s take a look at both teams to find the smart wager heading into Sunday’s tilt at Orchard Park.

New York's only football team. #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/vr2pXF92eW

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 25, 2020

Is Cam Newton On The Hot Seat?

Remember early in the season when folks were calling for Cam Newton to get a fat extension from the Patriots? Well, those times have come and gone. Newton has played five games this season and thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He’s completing 67.2% of his passes, which is actually a career high, it’s just been timely mistakes that have cost both him and his teammates. Newton does have five rushing touchdowns but since returning from injury, he appears to be relying more on his arm which has been good news for opposing defenses.

Cam Newton last 2 games: 0 Pass TD, 5 INT pic.twitter.com/s1sXpzzlp3

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) October 25, 2020

Things likely won’t be getting any easier for Newton on Sunday. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry are both out with knee injuries which leaves the Patriots even more shorthanded than they already are. Widely regarded as the worst receiving group in the NFL, missing two more bodies will leave Newton shorthanded. With windy conditions in the forecast, you can expect a lot of check downs and appearances from the field goal kicker. The weapons just aren’t there for the Patriots to have success in the red zone.

Josh Allen Making MVP Case

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson proved he’s human last week, which may have opened the door in the MVP race. That’s good news for Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has been incredible this season. He has 16 touchdown passes and only four interceptions through seven games. Allen has also added three more scores on the ground. Buffalo has been looking for a franchise quarterback for what feels like forever and it appears they’ve found their man. If Allen can continue his high rate of production once the colder weather hits, it could spell trouble for opponents in the AFC.

Leaders in Big Time Throws:
1. Tom Brady – 24
2. Russell Wilson – 23
3. Deshaun Watson – 20
T-4. Josh Allen/ Aaron Rodgers – 17 pic.twitter.com/ffBtul1SVm

— PFF (@PFF) October 26, 2020

One key reason to Allen’s success has been his chemistry with number one wideout Stefon Diggs. He ranks fifth in the league with 603 receiving yards and has been targeted 35 times over the last three games alone. Diggs touches the ball more than some starting running backs in the league. Expect Allen and Diggs to continue their incredible run against a team that could be handing them the ball in prime positions to score.

Bet The Bills Confidently

The last time these two teams met the Patriots came away with a 24-17 win. That might be the most meaningless stat you’ll ever read. The game was played last December and instead of a turnover machine in Newton at quarterback, New England had the goat Tom Brady. Nowadays, the gap between these two teams is too wide at the skill positions for this to be a close affair. Trust in the Bills to win this one with ease to help widen their lead atop the AFC East.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills -4 (-110)