Duke vs Northwestern Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday Night College Football (Sep. 6)
- Duke vs Northwestern takes place in Friday night college football action
- The latest odds have the Wildcats favored by 2.5 points at home
- Read below for Duke vs Northwestern odds, prediction and props
Week 2 of the 2024 college football season features an intriguing cross-conference clash, as the Duke Blue Devils (1-0) travel to Evanston to battle the Northwestern Wildcats (1-0) under the Friday night lights.
The Wildcats opened as short 2.5-point home favorites, with the total set at a low 37.5 points. Kickoff from Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium is set for 9 p.m. ET on FS1.
What’s the best bet for Duke vs Northwestern Friday night football? Let’s dive into my betting pick.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction
Despite Duke’s five-game win streak in this series, I’m all over the “Under” in this Week 2 clash. The Blue Devils are in transition with new head coach Manny Diaz and QB Maalik Murphy replacing Mike Elko and Riley Leonard.
Duke’s 26-3 win over FCS foe Elon in Week 1 wasn’t impressive, as the offense struggled, especially in the run game (59 yards). The Blue Devils didn’t pull away until the second half.
Northwestern, meanwhile, rode its strong defense to a gritty 13-6 win over solid Miami-OH in Week 1. The Wildcats held the RedHawks to 40 rush yards, while dual-threat QB Mike Wright threw for 178 yards and ran for 65 and a TD.
The Under has been a strong bet in key CFB betting trends. In the Wildcats’ last 16 home games as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, the Under is 14-2. The Under has also hit in five of their last six games and seven of the last 10 meetings with Duke.
Considering the strong Week 1 defensive efforts from both teams, along with the likelihood of inclement weather (wind and possible showers) at Martin Stadium, points should be at a premium on Friday night.
Duke-NW CFB Pick:
- Under 37.5 Points (-115)
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Duke vs Northwestern Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | Over 37.5 (-105) |
| Northwestern | -2.5 (-115) | -140 | Under 37.5 (-115) |
Northwestern opened as a 2.5-point home favorite, with moneyline odds of Wildcats -140 and Blue Devils +120. These opening lines suggest an implied probability of 58.3% for a Northwestern win, while Duke’s chances of springing the upset sit at 45.5%.
The total for this contest is set at a relatively low 37.5 points, which aligns with the impressive defensive performances both teams delivered in Week 1 and the expected weather conditions for Friday night in Evanston.
Notably, sharp bettors have already made an impact, driving the total down from its initial offering of 39.5 to the current number of 37.5. This significant line movement indicates that the wiseguys are forecasting a low-scoring, defensive slugfest.
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Odds as of Sep. 6, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Lock in the ESPN Bet promo to bet on Friday night football.
Head-to-Head History
Duke has had the upper hand in this series recently, winning and covering the spread in each of the last five meetings. However, the Under has been a prevalent trend when these two teams collide, cashing in seven of their last 10 matchups.
Duke-NW Recent Results
| Date | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16/2023 | DUKE 38 – NW 14 | DUKE -17 | Over 48.5 |
| 09/10/2022 | NW 23 – DUKE 31 | DUKE +10 | Under 56.5 |
| 09/18/2021 | DUKE 30 – NW 23 | DUKE +2.5 | Over 50 |
| 09/08/2018 | NW 7 – DUKE 21 | DUKE +2.5 | Under 47.5 |
| 09/09/2017 | DUKE 41 – NW 17 | DUKE +2 | Over 54 |
In their most recent encounter last season, Duke emerged victorious by a score of 38-14. However, with significant changes on the Blue Devils’ sideline and under center, it remains to be seen if they can continue their winning ways against the Wildcats.
Duke vs Northwestern Injury Report
As of now, the only notable injury report for this Week 2 showdown involves Northwestern defensive back Richie Hagarty, who is listed as out.
While Hagarty’s absence may test the depth of the Wildcats’ secondary, it appears that both Duke and Northwestern are otherwise heading into this contest with relatively clean bills of health.
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
