Colorado State vs Virginia Odds, Predictions, Props & Picks for First Four (March 19) – UPDATED

• The Colorado State Rams and Virginia Cavaliers meet in the First Four in Dayton, OH, on Tuesday
• CSU is a slight 1.5-point favorite over the Cavaliers
• Below, find the Colorado State vs Virginia odds, picks, and predictions for March 19

Number 10 seeds Colorado State (24-10, 5-1 neutral, 17-17 ATS) and Virginia (23-10, 3-2 neutral, 17-15-1 ATS) meet in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, on Tuesday night for the right to face #7 Texas in the first round of the 2024 March Madness bracket.

Tip-off for CSU vs UVA is set for 9:15 pm ET at UD Arena. The Rams, who had a four-game win streak snapped by New Mexico in the Mountain West semis, are listed as 1.5-point favorites in the Colorado State vs Virginia odds.

Colorado State vs Virginia Odds

Editor’s note: since the article was published, the line has moved to Colorado State -2.5 (-115) while the Rams are now -150 on the moneyline. The game total is still at -120.5 but the over is now slightly favored (-115o/-105u). 

The Rams are also -135 moneyline chalk with the Cavaliers coming back at +115 to advance. The game total is at just 120.5. UVA plays at the slowest pace in all of DI, while CSU isn’t much faster (270th out of 362 teams).

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Odds as of March 18 at BetMGM. Claim a sign up offer for BetMGM to bet on March Madness.

Oddsmakers aren’t optimistic about a deep run by either team. Both CSU and Virginia are listed at +15000 in the Final Four odds for the Midwest Region, where Purdue is favored at +165.

Colorado State Almost Perfect in Neutral-Site Games

The Rams had a rough time in true road games this season, going just 4-7 straight-up, but neutral-site games were a different story. CSU beat Boston College (86-74), Creighton (69-48), and Washington (86-81) on neutral courts early in the season before victories over San Jose State (72-62) and Nevada (85-78) in the MW Tournament in Las Vegas improved their record to a perfect 5-0 in neutral-court games.

A 74-61 loss to New Mexico in the Mountain West semis ended that streak.

Senior point guard Isaiah Stevens  leads the Rams in both scoring (16.5 PPG) and assists (7.0 APG). Steven is joined by three other players averaging double-figures: Joel Scott (12.9 PPG), Nique Clifford (12.2 PPG), and Patrick Cartier (10.5 PPG). All four are seniors but only Stevens was on the team in 2022, CSU’s last appearance in the tournament, which ended with a 75-63 loss to #11 Michigan as a #6 seed.

This year’s Rams sit 42nd in offensive efficiency, 38th on defense, and 38th overall. They make little effort on the offensive glass (305th in offensive-rebound percentage), with Niko Medved preferring his team to get back on D. CSU is connecting at just 33.2% from beyond the arc (212th) but an exceptional 57.6% from two, which is ninth-best in the country.

Virginia Struggles Down the Stretch

Generally a defense-first team under Tony Bennett and his patented pack-line defense, this year’s iteration of the Wahoos has taken that to a new extreme. UVA sits seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency and third in points allowed per game, but is a dreadful 194th in offensive efficiency. While they connect at a decent 36.3% clip from beyond the arc, only 32.7% of their field-goal attempts come from three (293rd-most).

That lack of offense was a huge issue down the stretch as UVA lost four of seven to finish the regular season. The Cavaliers didn’t even get to 50 points in three of those setbacks (75-41 at Virginia Tech, 54-44 vs UNC, and 73-48 at Duke).

Virginia played a pair of OT games in the ACC Tournament, squeezing past Boston College (66-60) before falling to eventual ACC-champion NC State (73-65) in stunning fashion. (UVA was up five with 1:10 on the clock and was shooting a pair of free throws and was getting the ball after a flagrant 1.)

Virginia has its share of quality wins, including Florida (73-70 neutral), Texas A&M (59-47 home), Wake Forest (49-47 home), and Clemson (66-65 away). But they are by far the worst-rated team at KenPom to receive an at-large bid. UVA is just 69th at KenPom (plus 58th at Haslametrics and 57th at Torvik), which is 20 spots lower than any other team that made March Madness as an at-large (#49 South Carolina is next).

CSU vs UVA Player Props

College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 18, 2024. 

Reece Beekman, who leads UVA in scoring at 14.3 PPG, has the highest point total on the board at 15.5 O/U. Stevens is the top Rams player at just 14.5, two points below his season average in light of the defense he’ll be facing. CSU 6’6 wing Nique Clifford has the highest rebound total at 7.5, which is exactly the number he’s averaged this year.

Colorado State vs Virginia Prediction

I have been fading this Virginia team for weeks and will happily do so again against Colorado State in a near pick’em. Tony Bennett’s defensive system has allowed UVA to get more out of its talent-sapped roster than it should have. The Rams are significantly more skilled and will find enough ways through the pack-line to move on.

Colorado State vs Virginia pick: Rams moneyline (-135) – two units