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2020 NBA Free Agency Odds – See the Teams Favored to Acquire DeRozan, Hayward, Ingram, Rose & More

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Nov 10, 2020 · 9:24 AM PST

DeMar DeRozan dribbles down wing
Is DeMar DeRozan destined to stay in San Antonio? Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire.
  • NBA free agency is coming up, though there remains uncertainty over the salary cap and how the league will be operating for the 2021 season
  • While not the strongest free agent class, plenty of players available could be difference makers on contenders
  • See the odds on where some of the biggest names free agency are predicted to sign

The NBA offseason is upon us. Front offices head into this free agency with more uncertainty than ever over potential revenue, the salary cap and next season’s start date.

After so many of the league’s best players hit the market in 2019, the 2020 class was always due to be underwhelming.

With Anthony Davis committing to the Lakers long-term, there’s a shortage of big names on the market, but there are plenty of good players available.

Oddsmakers have posted their markets on where some of the biggest names in the class will be playing basketball on day one of the 2021 season.

Odds on NBA Team Derrick Rose Plays for  in 2021

Team Odds
Detroit Pistons +170
Los Angeles Lakers +200
Los Angeles Clippers +400
Milwaukee Bucks +550
Philadelphia 76ers +900

All odds taken on October 23rd

The Detroit Pistons head into this offseason with a long list of questions to answer. The future of Derrick Rose is near the front of the list. Rose, a former MVP, is one of Detroit’s few trade assets. He is owed just $7.7 million in the final year of his contract, making him an easy player to trade for. The Pistons need all the assets they can get as they embark on a deep rebuild, and flipping Rose is one way to acquire picks or young players.

After they resisted trade approaches for Rose at the trade deadline, an off-season deal became very likely. The Lakers, who could lose Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo this offseason, and the Clippers, who were short on ball-handling in the playoffs, will both be in the mix, but the two Los Angeles franchises have very few picks to pull off a deal.

Rumors are bubbling up about the Lakers, as they do with every player they are semi-interested in. The Bucks are the team to keep an eye on here, though. Milwaukee need a point guard. If a Chris Paul deal is too scary for the front office, Rose could be a lower-risk alternative.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (+550)

Danilo Gallinari Free Agency Odds

Team Odds to Sign Gallinari
Dallas Mavericks +250
Miami Heat +350
Golden State Warriors +450
Toronto Raptors +600
Los Angeles Lakers +650
Milwaukee Bucks +650
Portland Trail Blazers +800

Gallinari is one of the most interesting names to watch this offseason. The Thunder are sellers. The core that took the Houston Rockets to seven games is going to get broken up, as is reflected in the fact that the Thunder do not appear in the table above.

A sign-and-trade is a possibility with Gallinari. If he wants to go to a contender, he could be forced into a one-year deal as teams wrestle to keep cap space for 2021. The Mavericks, Heat and Raptors are all in the race for Giannis Antetokounmpo – none of them will want to hand Gallinari a multi-year deal.

Having earned over $135 million his NBA career, will money be his priority? In what might be a slow market, he could end up taking the mid-level exception somewhere, which would make the Lakers and Warriors into intriguing landing spots. He would give Steve Kerr some more flexibility, and could play the four or five in line-ups alongside the Splash Brothers, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green.

Pick: Golden State Warriors (+450)

Odds on NBA Team Gordon Hayward Plays for in 2021

Team Odds
Boston Celtics -200
Indiana Pacers +550
Atlanta Hawks +800
Memphis Grizzlies +850
Detroit Pistons +1200
New York Knicks +1400

Hayward’s future, to a degree, is in his own hands. He has a player option worth north of $34 million for 2021, which he could turn down if he wants to leave Boston. There’s almost no chance he throws away that kind of money, though, particularly when so few contenders have cap space.

It will take a trade for Hayward to start next season on another team. Teams will have interest in acquiring the former Jazz wing, and the Indiana Pacers have been noted as a potential trade partner in recent days.

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There are a lot of deals that can be done – Boston has three first-round picks this year and could use Hayward to move up in the draft or acquire multiple rotation players.

Staying with the Celtics is still the most probable outcome. The odds aren’t great, but there’s not much value elsewhere.

Pick: Boston Celtics (-200)

Odds on NBA Team Jerami Grant Plays for in 2021 Season

Team Odds
Denver Nuggets -120
Miami Heat +350
Atlanta Hawks +800
Phoenix Suns +900
New York Knicks +1000
Detroit Pistons +1200
Sacramento Kings +1400

Grant was the Nuggets’ third-best player in the Western Conference Finals loss to the Lakers. Retaining Grant is key to Denver’s NBA championship odds. With Paul Millsap’s bloated salary coming off the books, Denver should be willing to sign Grant, even if other teams force them to overpay.

Teams will show interest. The Hawks could view Grant as a key piece as they look to add defense around Trae Young. Maybe the Suns throw money at him if they lose Dario Saric.

It should still be a routine contract extension for the Nuggets.

Pick: Denver Nuggets (-120)

Serge Ibaka Free Agency Odds

Team Odds
Toronto Raptors +150
Miami Heat +450
New York Knicks +550
Charlotte Hornets +600
Los Angeles Clippers +900
New Orleans Pelicans +900
Golden State Warriors +1000
Houston Rockets +1200

Serge Ibaka’s game has gone through different phases during his NBA career. He has adapted to the league – his current incarnation makes him a very valuable player, someone who can play the four or five, who can switch a bit and shoot threes. Adding Ibaka would be huge for several of the teams listed above.

The future of Marc Gasol is going to be important in this. There are rumors that the Spaniard is heading back to Europe, ending his NBA career. If that’s the case, Ibaka remaining in Canada becomes much more likely – the Raptors will be reluctant to lose both of the veteran big men.

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Much like Gallinari, Ibaka has made his money. He’s earned almost $120 million as an NBA player, and could go ring chasing in 2021. He’d be a great addition for the Clippers, but a one-year deal with Miami is a good bet at +450. Able to play with or instead of Bam Adebayo, he’d be perfect for the Eastern Conference champions.

Pick: Miami Heat (+450)

Brandon Ingram Free Agency Odds

Team Odds
New Orleans Pelicans -350
Atlanta Hawks +600
New York Knicks +700
Denver Nuggets +1200

This appears the most straight forward on the board. Brandon Ingram is a restricted free agent, and his performances in 2019-20 should make the Pelicans feel comfortable offering him a max contract.

He and Zion Williamson are the future of the organization, and it’s very hard to imagine how Ingram ends up playing for anyone else next season. It would need the Pelicans to be cheap and refuse to match an offer sheet from a team with cap space like the Knicks or Hawks.

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With Stan Van Gundy as head coach, the Pelicans will be hoping to compete for the playoffs in 2021. Ingram will be looking to go to another level after winning Most Improved Player last season – Van Gundy could be the man to make him a two-way force.

Pick: New Orleans Pelicans (-350)

DeMar DeRozan Free Agency Odds

Team Odds
San Antonio Spurs -175
Detroit Pistons +750
Charlotte Hornets +800
Orlando Magic +900
Chicago Bulls +1000
Miami Heat +1200
Brooklyn Nets +1200

In a normal season, DeMar DeRozan would be a candidate to turn down that $27.7 million player option. With little cap space around and many teams reluctant to spend, the expectation is that DeRozan will take that player option and head to free agency in 2021 when there’s hopefully more certainty about the league’s finances.

If the assumption is DeRozan opting in to his deal, then the onus (like with Hayward) is on the organization. The Spurs don’t look like a playoff team in 2021, but they aren’t going to tear it down while Gregg Popovich remains on the bench. A re-tool by trading DeRozan and/or LaMarcus Aldridge is possible, though the return would be minimal and the Spurs had some bubble success running small line-ups with DeRozan at the four.

San Antonio don’t have much reason to force a DeRozan trade. Not many teams will be calling to swing a deal for the former Raptors wing. It’s worth betting on DeRozan to be on the Spurs for the start of the season – the Spurs will try to compete, even if they end up flipping him mid-season.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs (-175)

Carmelo Anthony Free Agency Odds

Team Odds
Portland Trail Blazers -200
Los Angeles Lakers +600
New York Knicks +600
Charlotte Hornets +1200
Atlanta Hawks +1200
Detroit Pistons +1200

Carmelo Anthony enjoyed a career revival with the Portland Trail Blazers last season, posting his best three-point shooting numbers since his Knicks days and scoring over 15 per contest. It makes sense to see the Blazers favored as Melo’s team in 2020-21. Portland cannot offer him as much money as any of the cap space teams, but Anthony’s decision making at this stage is unlikely to be about chasing the highest salary.

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The Lakers could have acquired Anthony in the first half of last season. They decided against it.

After the news of Kyle Kuzma’s extension demands, perhaps LeBron and Carmelo teaming up becomes more likely. Should the Lakers trade Kuzma for backcourt help, they have a vacancy as a backup forward – would Anthony be interested in coming off the bench with the Lakers after starting for Portland?

Just like the first round of the playoffs, it’s Portland versus Lakers for Anthony. The growing possibility of a Kuzma trade makes it worthwhile betting on Melo joining the Lakers.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers (+600)

Andre Drummond Free Agency Odds

Team Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers -450
Boston Celtics +550
Toronto Raptors +1400
Charlotte Hornets +1600
Los Angeles Clippers +1800

With a player option at $28.75 million, Andre Drummond is unlikely to hit the free agent market. A trade after opting in or a sign-and-trade are both possible, though having traded for Drummond at the deadline earlier this year, Cleveland are probably not motivated to flip him.

Every veteran big man is getting linked with the Celtics at the moment. Boston can find cheaper centers – they would have to include Gordon Hayward’s contract to make the salaries work if Drummond opted in. A sign-and-trade possibility with the Charlotte Hornets is an interesting concept, but Michael Jordan’s franchise own the third overall pick and are focusing on a big man in the draft.

Staying in Cleveland looks by far the most likely outcome for Drummond. One more (very lucrative) year in Ohio and he can hit the free agent market next offseason.

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (-450)

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